Best of LinkedIn: Defense Tech CW 50 - 01

00:00:00: Provided by Thomas Allgaier and Fredis, based on the most relevant posts on LinkedIn about defense tech.

00:00:05: in CW-Fifty-O-One, FRIENDS is a B-to-B market research company that equips product and strategy teams with market and competitive intelligence across the defense industry.

00:00:15: Welcome to the deep dive.

00:00:17: Our mission today is to really cut through the noise and give you the most critical defense tech insights.

00:00:23: We've pulled these straight from the industry's own conversations on LinkedIn from the last few weeks of And

00:00:30: it was a well a really pivotal period.

00:00:32: what we saw in the source material wasn't just a series of you know, individual announcement, it felt like an ecosystem truly starting to converge.

00:00:40: The main trends were very clear.

00:00:43: Autonomy is finally moving out of R&D into real operations.

00:00:47: The arms race in uncrewed systems is escalating fast, and maybe most critically, the institutional response across Europe is rapidly accelerating to meet these new realities.

00:00:56: Exactly.

00:00:56: And I think what makes this deep dive so compelling is how coupled everything is.

00:01:02: We're seeing innovations forged in the You know, the crucible of combat in Ukraine directly influencing U.S.

00:01:09: platforms.

00:01:10: And that dual-use momentum is dragging traditional defense toward a new kind of agility.

00:01:15: The narrative just isn't siloed anymore.

00:01:16: It's tightly coupled across every single domain.

00:01:19: It really is.

00:01:20: Okay, so let's unpack this with our first big theme.

00:01:23: Autonomy and AI taking that operational leap.

00:01:26: And this isn't future tense stuff anymore, is it?

00:01:28: We're seeing scalable, complex ops being proven out both in the air and under the sea.

00:01:34: We're seeing evidence of this shift just everywhere.

00:01:37: I mean, look at cooperative autonomy and aviation.

00:01:40: Rodney Rodriguez Robles, he detailed the impressive complexity of two Kizaloma UAVs flying in close autonomous formation.

00:01:47: I saw that video.

00:01:48: And it looked deceptively simple.

00:01:49: We've seen formation flying.

00:01:51: But Robles was stressing that this required continuous high-precision relative navigation.

00:01:55: So if they're not just relying on standard GPS, what does that hyperprecision actually buy you in a contested environment?

00:02:02: Resilience.

00:02:02: It buys you resilience.

00:02:03: It's not just about knowing your absolute location on a map, which can be easily spoofed or jammed.

00:02:10: It's knowing your exact position relative.

00:02:13: to the other aircraft, we're talking down to centimeters continuously and reliably.

00:02:17: So you're using advanced systems like RTK, that real time kinematic, for a moving baseline GNSS plus inertial coupling.

00:02:25: These are systems that are just inherently more responsive, right, to manage that high speed communication between the vehicles.

00:02:31: Precisely.

00:02:32: And Robles also hit on a major challenge, which is how do you take these fast moving, evolving AIs and put them safely into legacy aircraft into those highly certified, very conservative avionics, the so-called high DAL systems.

00:02:45: That feels

00:02:46: like mixing oil and water.

00:02:48: The certification for those legacy systems, it moves at a glacial pace.

00:02:51: How do you inject something so disruptive without breaking that stability?

00:02:55: The secret, at least according to Robles, is using an open system architecture combined with something called runtime assurance.

00:03:02: So the AI gets to manage the mission and the behaviors, but this runtime assurance which is governed by standards like ASTM F-three, two, six, nine, twenty-one, it acts as a sort of impartial safety guardian.

00:03:14: So the goal is to isolate the risk.

00:03:16: You let the AI push the boundaries, but you have this other certified system that can fail safely and instantly fall back to pre-proof modes if the AI does something weird.

00:03:24: Exactly.

00:03:25: You get speed and safety at the same time.

00:03:27: Right.

00:03:28: And then moving to the maritime domain, Scott Jameson's post on the UK's Hearn Autonomous Submarine, the XLA-UV, I mean, this is a massive lead forward for persistence underwater.

00:03:38: And the timeline alone is just remarkable.

00:03:40: They went from concept to sea trial in eleven months.

00:03:44: Eleven.

00:03:45: And I think the real aha moment here for you, the listener, is the fundamental change in how they treat data.

00:03:52: Right.

00:03:52: Traditionally, you send an XLAUV out, it's gone for weeks, it collects petabytes of data, and only after it gets back to base do you even start to analyze it.

00:03:59: Yeah.

00:03:59: And by then, the tactical advantage is lost because the data isn't actionable when you need it.

00:04:04: But Herne is being built as part of a system of systems for real-time collection analysis and sharing.

00:04:10: So you're going from decisions made weeks later to decisions made in hours, from seabed to space.

00:04:16: And that same need for speed is bleeding into decision-making AI.

00:04:21: Anson Suzhou highlighted how Lockheed Martin demonstrated a real-time mission contingency manager.

00:04:27: It showed that large language models can make mission-critical decisions in the battle space.

00:04:31: It's a simple except reject architecture.

00:04:34: So the human operator is still in control, but the system resolves contingencies in seconds, not minutes.

00:04:39: It's even speeding up strategy itself.

00:04:42: Laura Sampso detailed the new Genwar Lab at Johns Hopkins APL, where they're using generative AI for wargaming.

00:04:48: So instead of static scenario planning, AI agents are simulating vast numbers of what-if scenarios.

00:04:54: It just accelerates foresight, lets you test adaptive strategies at machine speed.

00:04:57: But that push for high-end AI speed, it runs headlong into the battlefield.

00:05:01: reality from Ukraine, doesn't it?

00:05:03: It really does.

00:05:03: That reality says volume and price matter just as much as sophistication.

00:05:08: And what's fascinating here is this tension between, you know, the gold-plated complexity and just simple, lethal mass.

00:05:15: The countermass challenge.

00:05:16: It defines the whole debate right now.

00:05:18: Aviv Barzohar gave a perfect example of the economic reality.

00:05:22: A Ukrainian interceptor drone costing maybe a thousand dollars was documented taking out a Russian Lancet loitering munition.

00:05:29: Which

00:05:30: costs dramatically more.

00:05:31: The entire cost calculus is completely inverted.

00:05:34: It's

00:05:34: brutal.

00:05:35: And the threats are evolving so fast.

00:05:37: Zohar also noted reports that a Shahid or Jaren type UAV was modified to carry and launch a shoulder-fired missile.

00:05:44: So you're turning a slow, cheap drone into a flying launcher.

00:05:48: It's a serious, low-cost, air-to-air threat to slower targets.

00:05:51: Which means the CUAS, the counter-drone response, has to be just as rapid and multi-layered.

00:05:57: Dr.

00:05:57: Dirk Zimper from MBDA Deutschland noted they're making laser weapon systems a reality.

00:06:03: moving them out of sci-fi and into deployable defense.

00:06:05: And on the digital front, Jeffers Stringfellow and Race McDermott shared that Lockheed's Sanctum CUAS system is leveraging Microsoft's cloud and AI.

00:06:15: The response is becoming increasingly software defined.

00:06:18: But this sophistication brings us to a major critique, one that really gets at the core industrial philosophy.

00:06:24: Marc Ciel critiqued the Rheinmetall Skynex system.

00:06:27: Right.

00:06:28: He praised the A-head ammunition, that proximity fuse that detonates a cloud of tungsten pellets.

00:06:34: A genius idea, he called it.

00:06:36: But he argued its four kilometer effective range and astronomical cost just make it fundamentally unsuitable for what's needed.

00:06:43: He was blunt about the numbers, wasn't he?

00:06:45: A reported price of over seventy to ninety million euros per unit and anywhere from four to sixteen thousand euros per shot.

00:06:52: Exactly.

00:06:53: His point was against a saturation attack of cheap mass-produced drones, you simply can't field enough Sinex units to defend a large perimeter.

00:07:01: But wait, is that entirely fair?

00:07:02: I mean, if you destroy one sophisticated missile that says a command center, doesn't that sixteen thousand dollar shot suddenly become well irrelevant?

00:07:10: That's the classic high value target argument and it's valid.

00:07:13: But Marc Ciel is focused on the problem of perimeter defense against mass.

00:07:17: And his critique connects directly to a broader industrial problem that Jonas Singer articulated so powerfully.

00:07:24: Singer argues that our current defense acquisition model, it rewards a type of complexity that is, in his words, mathematically impossible to sustain at scale.

00:07:34: He actually called it a strategic suicide pact.

00:07:36: Wow, that is a provocative phrase.

00:07:39: What exactly does he mean by that?

00:07:40: A strategic suicide pact?

00:07:42: His point is we are designing systems that are so complex they require this.

00:07:47: tiny, hyper-specialized workforce.

00:07:50: A workforce of PhDs basically for production, for maintenance, for upgrades.

00:07:54: And

00:07:54: that kind of specialization can never scale to the volume you need in a real conflict.

00:07:58: Precisely.

00:07:59: So the adversary who's just focused on producing hundreds of cheap, effective drones essentially wins the logistics of workforce war before the first shot is even fired.

00:08:07: Because our systems are too bespoke.

00:08:09: Mass over perfection.

00:08:11: Exactly.

00:08:12: And that whole debate leads us right into how the industry is trying to address this speed challenge, both in platform development and manufacturing culture.

00:08:21: And here's where it gets really interesting, because you see this clear contrast between the traditional defense establishment and the non-traditionals.

00:08:27: Vernon Weisenberg.

00:08:29: He was referencing the CEO of RTX and he emphasized that old guard argument that staling manufacturing is an entirely different ball game than rapid prototyping.

00:08:39: Which is the classic defense of the primes, right?

00:08:42: You could build one fast, but you can't build a hundred thousand fast.

00:08:46: But Weisenberg pushed back hard on that.

00:08:49: He argued that the prime's reliance on these archaic industrial models has starved the warfighter of innovation and speed.

00:08:55: And

00:08:55: he pointed directly to companies like Andorral as proof that commercial prototyping and production models can scale rapidly.

00:09:02: This is a philosophical battle and it's tied directly to contracting.

00:09:05: It is.

00:09:06: Weisenberg specifically called for reducing cost plus contracts to less than five percent of all acquisitions.

00:09:12: Which, for listeners who might not be procurement experts, that's a huge distinction.

00:09:16: In a cost plus contract, the government pays whatever it costs the company to deliver something plus a guaranteed profit.

00:09:22: So there's zero incentive for the manufacturer to be fast or efficient.

00:09:26: or simple.

00:09:27: None.

00:09:27: The incentive is to add more complexity, which guarantees more cost and therefore more profit, limiting cost plus forces agility back into the system.

00:09:37: And agility requires testing and, well, failing quickly.

00:09:41: Madeleine Hart gave some really important cultural context here.

00:09:45: She reminded critics that all the media attacks on nontraditionals fail tests.

00:09:49: They just ignore America's history of developing weapons like the ICBM by blowing up hardware to build the world's best.

00:09:56: Her alternative was that systems become so expensive.

00:09:58: we can't afford the failure that's necessary for innovation.

00:10:01: Which is a crucial cultural point.

00:10:03: Now, on the platform front, modernization is continuing across NATO.

00:10:07: TAR allows confirmed F-Sixteen Block Seventy deliveries to Bulgaria and Slovakia.

00:10:11: bolstering

00:10:12: the alliance's common platform base and Finland welcoming its first f- Thirty five a as celebrated by Greg Ulmer and John losing her.

00:10:20: That's another key interoperability milestone.

00:10:22: and while these high-end platforms are still critical the focus on logistics at the ground level is I think even more telling about current operations.

00:10:30: Absolutely.

00:10:31: George Huckle highlighted the foundational role of uncrewed ground vehicles UGVs.

00:10:36: in Ukraine.

00:10:38: commanders there estimated that UGVs facilitate nine

00:10:44: Wow.

00:10:45: Ninety percent.

00:10:46: That's not just a military advantage.

00:10:47: That's a baseline survival metric.

00:10:49: It means UGVs are foundational to supply chain resilience.

00:10:52: Logistics is impact, as he said.

00:10:54: Indeed.

00:10:55: And bridging that gap, you have ARX Robotics.

00:10:58: Mark Abodfeldt announced they're launching Hector, which is an optionally manned platform designed specifically for cost-efficient mass production.

00:11:05: Okay, let's shift now.

00:11:06: Let's talk about the institutional and financial framework that's supporting all this change, particularly in Europe.

00:11:12: Because if we connect this industrial push to the bigger picture, All the speed needs serious capital and policy alignment behind it.

00:11:20: And we are finally seeing that commitment.

00:11:22: There's a clear capital shift.

00:11:24: Olaf Alexander announced the launch of Gunyear Capital, which is Scandinavia's first pure defense tech investment fund.

00:11:30: Aiming to back ten to twenty emerging companies, that level of dedicated, specialized capital, it just shows immense investor confidence in the sector.

00:11:40: And the innovation capital isn't just in established markets.

00:11:43: John Biggs reported that Ukraine's defense tech sector raised over a hundred and five million US dollars in private capital in twenty twenty five alone.

00:11:52: Which positions it as one of Europe's strongest early stage markets.

00:11:55: It's a wartime innovation hub powered by private money and urgent need.

00:11:59: And the EU is backing that up institutionally.

00:12:02: Simone Griglio detailed the EU safety initiative.

00:12:05: It's designed to mobilize up to one hundred fifty billion euros in EU backed loans for common procurement.

00:12:10: It's an effort to harmonize procurement and offer favorable long-term financing to member states.

00:12:16: And they're specifically targeting Ukrainian innovation too.

00:12:19: Valeria Ionin announced the new Brave One UU-IV UA grant program.

00:12:25: It offers grants up to a hundred and fifty thousand euros for innovators focused on air defense solutions like high-speed interceptors and radars.

00:12:32: So that's

00:12:32: policy directly tackling that mass production defense challenge we were just talking

00:12:36: about.

00:12:36: Exactly.

00:12:37: Moving to sovereign capability, there's a strategic push into space.

00:12:42: Germany placed a major order for space-based ISR capability.

00:12:45: But the really strategic move is the creation of this powerful European consortium, Helsing, Kongsberg, Hensel, Tee, and Eiser Aerospace.

00:12:54: They're launching an initiative to build a sovereign space-based intelligence, surveillance, and targeting constellation by twenty twenty nine.

00:13:01: Dr.

00:13:02: Jan Stober and Andrzej Kuczyk emphasized this is a full stack end to end defense capability.

00:13:07: It integrates AI driven software like Helsing's Ultra with high end sensors and relies on Eiser Aerospace for sovereign launch.

00:13:14: So it's about ensuring Europe controls its own critical decision loop in space.

00:13:18: Which brings us, finally, to the talent pipeline and these cultural changes.

00:13:22: Kadri Tamai noted that NATO-Diana is extending its innovation pipeline.

00:13:27: The twenty-twenty-six cohort is heavily focused on critical domains like resilience-based operations and maritime defense.

00:13:33: And that dual-use connection is still crucial.

00:13:36: Mohammed Sobi Fuda highlighted the dronamite autonomous fire suppression system.

00:13:40: It's basically rocket engineering talent being repurposed for rapid wildfire response.

00:13:45: In a really beautiful example of community engagement, the Drone Aid Collective, Yana Rodenko and Mark Prunk noted they built six hundred and thirty drones through workshops across Europe.

00:13:55: It just proves this tech empowers citizens and serves humanitarian goals too.

00:13:59: And it all comes back to cultural speed.

00:14:01: A Tian's servant shared Helsing's internal design philosophy.

00:14:04: He said they design in hours, not quarters, and they expect total autonomy from their engineers.

00:14:09: That commercial urgency is the mindset they are trying to inject across the entire defense sector.

00:14:14: So when you look across these crucial two weeks, the narrative is really anchored by three things.

00:14:19: Speed, the operational deployment of eponomy, and a rapidly coalescing European industrial base that's responding directly to lessons from the front line.

00:14:29: So what does this all mean for you?

00:14:30: Well, the ultimate differentiator isn't going to be which country has the single most advanced piece of tech.

00:14:36: It's going to be which nation or alliance can scale its production and integrate software agility faster than the threat can evolve.

00:14:43: And Benjamin Tallis puts the historical weight on exactly that point.

00:14:48: Disruptive shifts in military affairs, they fundamentally change the calculus of deterrence.

00:14:53: We have a very brief window right now to learn from history and harness this technological shift.

00:14:58: If we fail to adapt our industrial base and our acquisition philosophy, we risk being mastered by enemies who prioritize mass and simplicity

00:15:22: over perfection.