Best of LinkedIn: Defense Tech CW 02/ 03

00:00:00: Provided by Thomas Allgaier and Franus, based on the most relevant posts on LinkedIn about defense tech in CWO two and O three, Franus is a B to B market research company that equips product and strategy teams with market and competitive intelligence across the defense industry.

00:00:15: And welcome back to the deep dive.

00:00:17: We are looking at a really high intensity window today, calendar weeks two and three of twenty twenty six.

00:00:23: Honestly, looking at the intelligence from the last couple of weeks, it really feels like the industry has hit some kind of pivot point.

00:00:29: For years, we've talked about the potential of defense

00:00:33: tech.

00:00:34: Right.

00:00:34: But now, it feels like we're actually seeing the gears start to grind into motion.

00:00:38: It's the shift from, can we design this thing to, can we build two thousand of them by next year?

00:00:43: And you can see this tension playing out all over the feed.

00:00:46: Oh, so.

00:00:47: Well, on one side, you have the industrial giants, you know, the primes, flexing muscles we haven't seen them use in decades.

00:00:53: And

00:00:53: on the other,

00:00:54: the startup ecosystem is just rewriting the physics of procurement.

00:00:58: It's a real collision of cultures and budgets.

00:01:01: and well, battlefields.

00:01:03: We've got five key clusters to get through today.

00:01:06: Okay.

00:01:07: We're going to look at this explosion in industrial capacity, the reality of AI moving into the plumbing of warfare, the drone versus counter drone arms race.

00:01:17: Which is escalating fast.

00:01:18: It is.

00:01:19: Then the economics of laser weapons and finally the leadership strategies trying to make sense of it all.

00:01:24: There's a lot of signal on the noise these past two weeks.

00:01:27: Let's get into it.

00:01:27: So we have to start with the hardware.

00:01:29: the capital, the ecosystem, the industrial base.

00:01:32: I mean, for a long time, the critique of the Western defense industry was that we build Ferraris when we really need Fords.

00:01:38: Exquisite R&D, but brittle supply chains.

00:01:41: Exactly.

00:01:41: But looking at the updates from mid-January, specifically from Lockheed Martin, that narrative is being forcefully corrected.

00:01:49: It is.

00:01:49: The numbers are pretty startling.

00:01:51: Yeah.

00:01:51: If you saw the updates from Tim Cahill and Daniel Nimblett at Lockheed, they dropped a figure on the Passy III MSC that really sets the tone for twenty twenty

00:02:00: six.

00:02:00: So just for context, the PAXY three MSE is the high velocity interceptor for the Patriot system, right?

00:02:05: Yeah, it's the bullet that hits the incoming bullet, a critical defensive asset.

00:02:09: And for

00:02:09: years, production was pretty steady, but you know, relatively

00:02:13: low.

00:02:14: It was.

00:02:15: They have now reached an agreement to ramp production from six hundred a year to two thousand a year.

00:02:21: over the next seven years.

00:02:22: That's

00:02:23: more than a three x increase.

00:02:24: It's massive.

00:02:25: Yeah.

00:02:25: And what's interesting here is that this isn't just about working faster.

00:02:29: They're calling it the acquisition transformation strategy.

00:02:32: So they're redesigning the whole process.

00:02:33: The whole factory floor.

00:02:35: It signals a move away from just in time efficiency, which is great for the civilian world, to just in case capacity, which is what you need for a major conflict.

00:02:45: And we saw a similar flex at the F- Thirty-Five plant in Fort Worth.

00:02:49: Jim Tacklett and Greg Ulmer hosted the Secretary of War, Pete Hegseff, and the headline wasn't just the visit.

00:02:55: It was the numbers.

00:02:56: It was the numbers.

00:02:57: They delivered a hundred and ninety-one jets in twenty twenty-five.

00:03:01: A new record.

00:03:02: And the vibe of those posts is very specific.

00:03:05: It's not we're trying our best.

00:03:06: It's we are the arsenal.

00:03:08: The message from the prime seems to be, you want mass.

00:03:12: We're the only ones who can actually deliver it.

00:03:14: Right.

00:03:15: That's the old steel argument.

00:03:16: But then you flip the coin to the venture backside and the philosophy is just completely different.

00:03:21: Eves Augustus from Stark wrote a brilliant reflection on this.

00:03:25: He moved from a prime to a VC backed firm and he used this great analogy of the cargo ship versus the hydroplane.

00:03:33: I love that visual.

00:03:34: The prime is this cargo ship, immense capacity, huge momentum.

00:03:38: Yeah.

00:03:38: But it takes five miles to even turn the rudder.

00:03:40: Exactly.

00:03:41: Whereas the VC bag startup is the hydroplane.

00:03:44: It skims the surface.

00:03:45: It's agile.

00:03:46: It's built for speed.

00:03:48: Eves points out that in his new world, they're taking products to TRL seven in months.

00:03:52: Let's pause on that for a second.

00:03:53: TRL seven.

00:03:54: That's technology readiness level seven.

00:03:56: So we're talking about a prototype demonstrated in an operational environment.

00:03:59: Right.

00:03:59: Not just on a lab bench.

00:04:00: It's ready to get dirty.

00:04:01: And that speed is vital because the threat changes weekly, doesn't it?

00:04:05: It does.

00:04:07: You can't spend ten years building a counter drone system if the drones themselves change every month.

00:04:12: Mark Whitefeld from ARX Robotics really emphasized this.

00:04:15: They just partnered with Daimler Truck AG.

00:04:18: That's an interesting pair.

00:04:19: A robotics startup and a legacy truck maker.

00:04:22: It is, and Mark made this point that it's not about the press release.

00:04:25: It's about the hard work that is rarely visible.

00:04:28: It's about merging that hydroplane agility with the cargo ship's scale.

00:04:32: But...

00:04:33: There is a bit of a wet blanket on all this.

00:04:35: And that's the budget.

00:04:36: Someone has to sign the checks.

00:04:38: Luca Leone shared a pretty sobering analysis of Britain's twenty twenty five defense review.

00:04:43: Yeah, the reality check.

00:04:45: Luca points out a twenty four billion funding gap over the next decade for the UK.

00:04:50: He warns that the review could just become a statement of intent instead of actual combat capacity.

00:04:54: And he noted that conventional force spending is actually falling in the near term.

00:04:58: Correct.

00:04:59: Artillery stocks are thin.

00:05:01: So while we're celebrating Lockheed ramping up missile production, there's a real question in Europe about solvency.

00:05:06: Innovation requires solvency.

00:05:08: That's

00:05:08: the classic defense dilemma.

00:05:10: Okay, so we have the hardware scaling up, but we also need the software to run it.

00:05:14: And this brings us to our second cluster, AI and autonomy.

00:05:19: And the conversation has thankfully moved past the, you know, the Skynet stuff into what I'd call industrial AI.

00:05:26: It's becoming the plumbing of the war machine.

00:05:29: It might sound boring, but it's revolutionary for the operator.

00:05:32: A perfect example is what Preston Feinberg shared about Palantir and the Navy.

00:05:36: Ah yes, the ship OS.

00:05:38: Ship operating system.

00:05:39: So think of it as a digital twin for the entire shipbuilding process.

00:05:43: which is incredibly complex, thousands of suppliers, millions of parts.

00:05:48: And instead of static spreadsheets, ShipOS uses AI to connect everyone.

00:05:52: So if a vow is late from a factory in Ohio, the system automatically reorganizes the work schedule in the shipyard.

00:05:58: Precisely.

00:05:59: So workers aren't just standing around waiting, it's dynamic.

00:06:03: And Feinberg notes it uses a shared savings contract, which is clever.

00:06:07: Palantir gets paid.

00:06:08: based on the efficiency they deliver.

00:06:10: That aligns the incentives.

00:06:11: Exactly.

00:06:11: Okay, that's the back office.

00:06:13: But what about the front line, the kill chain?

00:06:15: We saw a fascinating update from Victor Mengen about the MAV and SMART system.

00:06:20: This is where AI really changes the speed of battle.

00:06:23: They used this system to analyze satellite imagery of an airbase in Kaleningrad.

00:06:29: The AI identified and classified Su--------------------------------------------------------------------------.

00:06:32: And the time to result.

00:06:33: Thirty seconds.

00:06:34: That's...

00:06:35: That is wild.

00:06:36: A human analyst would take hours, maybe days.

00:06:39: Right.

00:06:39: The AI flags it, classifies it, and puts it on a commander screen in half a minute.

00:06:44: That just compresses the whole decision loop.

00:06:46: And the market is clearly buying into this.

00:06:48: MOAD-M posted that Harmitant AI raised a two hundred million dollar Series B.

00:06:53: And that was led by Dissalt Aviation, which is significant.

00:06:56: Dissalt makes the Rafaal jet.

00:06:58: For them to lead around in AI startup shows they know the future isn't just the metal frame.

00:07:02: It's the autonomous mission systems incited.

00:07:05: It connects to an interview Shashank Joshi did with Torsten Reel from Helsing.

00:07:08: They talked about precise mass.

00:07:10: The idea that AI allows you to control swarms of systems, not just one.

00:07:16: But Reel also touched on the ethical dimension.

00:07:19: Not in a preachy way, but as a design challenge.

00:07:22: Meaning.

00:07:23: Well, if the speed warfare exceeds human reaction time, how do you maintain meaningful human control?

00:07:29: It's a problem democracies have to get right.

00:07:32: That speed issue leads us directly into theme three, the drone war, or really the multi-domain autonomous war.

00:07:39: Right, because as Matt McCran from Endorbrel pointed out, we're making a mistake if we only look at the sky.

00:07:45: His

00:07:45: take on counter UAS?

00:07:47: He says we're too fixated on aerial drones.

00:07:49: Which seems a little counterintuitive given the news.

00:07:51: But

00:07:51: look at the Black Sea.

00:07:52: The Ukrainians changed naval warfare with unmanned surface vessels, USVs.

00:07:57: My crans point is that if your defense system only looks up, you're going to get hit from the ground or the sea.

00:08:01: The threat is three hundred and sixty degrees

00:08:03: now.

00:08:03: And the threats that are in the sky are getting nastier.

00:08:06: Benjamin Wolba highlighted a new Russian unit called Rubicon.

00:08:09: This one really caught my attention.

00:08:10: Yeah, this isn't some militia with duct taped consumer drones.

00:08:14: This is a state backed center using fiber optic drones and Starlink equipped UAVs.

00:08:20: But the phrase will be used that stuck with me is they have zero patience for aesthetics.

00:08:25: Meaning they don't care if it looks pretty?

00:08:26: They don't care about polish or paint.

00:08:28: They just care about.

00:08:29: does it explode and is it cheap?

00:08:31: It's brutal efficiency.

00:08:32: And that efficiency is evolving into air-to-air combat.

00:08:36: Aviv Bar-Zohar spotted the Grand UAV carrying a heat-seeking missile.

00:08:42: A drone hunting other drones or helicopters.

00:08:44: that completely changes the airspace.

00:08:46: If a cheap drone can take out a manned helicopter, the risk calculation for sending in pilots just goes through the roof.

00:08:52: We

00:08:52: are seeing the industry respond though.

00:08:54: Penny Berger and Oleg Vornek reported that drone shield landed an eight point two million dollar military contract.

00:09:01: So the money is flowing.

00:09:02: And the big players are adapting their heavy hitters.

00:09:05: Tom Kavanaugh from Lockheed Martin showed the JGM the joint air to ground missile launching vertically.

00:09:10: Why is vertical launch a big deal there?

00:09:12: It means you don't need to point the launcher at the target.

00:09:15: You can stick it on a truck, launch it straight up, and it can turn to hit a threat from any direction.

00:09:20: They're pitching it for counter UAS.

00:09:22: But doesn't that bring us back to the math problem?

00:09:25: A JAGM missile is expensive.

00:09:27: A drone is cheap.

00:09:28: Are we just shooting Rolexes at Cassios?

00:09:30: Exactly.

00:09:32: And that economic disparity is the single biggest driver for our fourth theme.

00:09:37: The search for a cheaper bullet.

00:09:40: Specifically, Directed energy.

00:09:43: Laters.

00:09:43: Matt K posted an incredibly detailed deep dive on this.

00:09:47: He calls it the economic calculus.

00:09:48: It's

00:09:49: the only math that really works in the long run.

00:09:51: A sea viper missile can cost millions.

00:09:54: Matt K puts the cost of a laser shot at about ten pounds.

00:09:56: Ten pounds, that's less than lunch.

00:09:58: Exactly.

00:09:59: He highlighted the UK's dragon fire system.

00:10:01: which supposedly hit a target the size of a coin from a kilometer away.

00:10:05: And the US Navy's heliosystem is already going onto ships.

00:10:08: So if they're so cheap and effective, why aren't they everywhere?

00:10:11: Matt Kay mentioned blooming.

00:10:13: Right, blooming.

00:10:14: It's a physics problem.

00:10:16: The atmosphere has dust, moisture, fog.

00:10:19: A high energy laser hits those particles and heats the air, which scatters the beam.

00:10:24: It loses focus.

00:10:26: So it's a weather dependent weapon.

00:10:28: And then there's the Red Queens race

00:10:29: from Alice in Wonderland.

00:10:30: You have to run just to stay in the same place.

00:10:33: Yeah, we build a laser.

00:10:34: The enemy puts a reflective coating on the drone.

00:10:37: It's a constant technological tussle.

00:10:39: So lasers aren't a silver bullet.

00:10:41: No, they're part of a layered defense.

00:10:43: You use the ten pound laser for the cheap drone swarm and you save the million pound missile for the supersonic cruise missile.

00:10:50: Right, which Robert Lightfoot noted Lockheed is building eighteen new tracking satellites

00:10:55: for.

00:10:55: And John Hill posted about the LRASM, the long range anti-ship missile, which is designed to think for itself if it loses connection.

00:11:03: The high end is getting smarter too.

00:11:04: And

00:11:05: I also want to quickly mention Stephen Sturges's note that Waldo.

00:11:08: three point oh a free AI for drones is back online.

00:11:11: It just shows the barrier to entry for smart drone tech is incredibly low.

00:11:15: That's

00:11:16: a great point.

00:11:16: It's happening at both ends of the spectrum.

00:11:18: Okay, so we've covered factories, AI, drones and lasers.

00:11:22: But none of this matters if the doctrine, the strategy is broken.

00:11:26: This brings us to our final cluster.

00:11:28: Leadership.

00:11:29: And there's some really sharp criticism this week about whether we are actually battle proving our investments.

00:11:35: Richard William had a very provocative post about the Royal Navy's Proteus helicopter.

00:11:40: The unmanned helicopter program.

00:11:42: Yes.

00:11:43: It costs about sixty million pounds.

00:11:45: It flew, so it's a technical success.

00:11:47: But William asks the hard question, is it scalable?

00:11:51: If a drone costs sixty million, can you afford to lose it?

00:11:54: And if you can't afford to lose it, it's not really expendable, is it?

00:11:57: Precisely.

00:11:58: He argues we need cheap mass, not unmanned luxury.

00:12:01: You can contract that with a report from a TNL's at the NRW summit in Germany.

00:12:05: What

00:12:05: did he find?

00:12:06: He pointed out that while Germany is investing billions in defense, less than one percent is designated for unmanned systems.

00:12:12: Less than one percent in twenty

00:12:14: twenty six.

00:12:14: It's shocking.

00:12:15: He says they lack battle proving.

00:12:17: You can't understand modern war if you aren't testing these systems in the mud in the chaos of electronic warfare.

00:12:23: Which

00:12:23: is exactly what Ukraine is getting right.

00:12:26: German Stelmak posted about Ukraine's new defense minister, Mikhail Fedorov.

00:12:31: His strategy is fascinating.

00:12:32: Trust is the currency.

00:12:34: That's his line.

00:12:35: He's

00:12:35: basically treating the Ministry of Defense like a Silicon Valley tech giant.

00:12:39: Defense tech first.

00:12:41: He's digitizing the paper chaos and creating career ladders for tech talent in the military.

00:12:47: It's about mobilizing the talent base, not just the industrial base.

00:12:51: Pascal M. noted something similar with the Swiss Army's focus on the Sensor Intel Command Effect Network.

00:12:57: Which brings us to a final, perfect thought on strategy from Benjamin Tallis.

00:13:01: Technology does not equal transformation.

00:13:04: That's the quote.

00:13:04: You can buy all the best tech in the world.

00:13:06: But if your organization is stuck in nineteen ninety, if you can't share data, if you can't fail fast, you will lose.

00:13:14: It's a lot to digest.

00:13:15: It

00:13:15: is.

00:13:15: From the factory floors in Fort Worth to the laser labs in the UK, the machine is definitely moving.

00:13:21: I think the takeaway for you, the listener, is that the experimentation phase is ending.

00:13:25: We are now entering the industrialization phase.

00:13:28: The toys are being put away and the tools are being engaged.

00:13:31: That's a good way to put it.

00:13:32: Before we go, here's a final thought for you to mull over.

00:13:35: We talked about the economic calculus, the ten pound laser versus the one thousand pound drone, but consider the AI.

00:13:43: If an AI can coordinate a swarm of five thousand drones simultaneously, does the cost even matter anymore?

00:13:49: Can a laser system, even a cheap one, track and engage five thousand targets at once before it's overwhelmed?

00:13:56: We might be solving the cost equation, but we haven't solved the saturation equation.

00:14:01: And that's the question that keeps strategists awake at night.

00:14:04: If you enjoyed this episode, new episodes drop every two weeks.

00:14:07: Also check out our other editions on ICT and tech insights, health tech, cloud, digital products and services, artificial intelligence, and sustainability in green ICT.

00:14:16: Thanks for listening.

00:14:17: Stay sharp out there.

00:14:18: And don't forget to subscribe for the next deep dive into the defense sector.

00:14:21: Catch you next

00:14:22: time.