Best of LinkedIn: Defense Tech CW 06/ 07

00:00:00: Provided by Thomas Allgaier and Frenis, based on the most relevant posts on LinkedIn about defense tech in CW six-and seven.

00:00:06: Frenes is a B to B market research company that equips product and strategy teams with market and competitive intelligence across.

00:00:14: And we are back.

00:00:16: Welcome to another Deep Dive!

00:00:17: It is great to be back, We've got a massive stack of sources for calendar week.

00:00:21: six and seven of twenty-twenty-six... ...and I have say looking at the spread here The whole vibe has definitely changed.

00:00:28: it really hasn't

00:00:29: feels less like were looking at concept art in more More.

00:00:33: look at actual blueprints.

00:00:35: That's perfect way.

00:00:36: if i had put a headline on last two weeks its definitive shift from strategy to execution You can almost feel the gears grinding into motion.

00:00:45: Right, it's less.

00:00:46: here is a white paper on what we should do in five years and more.

00:00:50: Here's a photo of us breaking ground on the factory today

00:00:53: Exactly.

00:00:54: And as we sifted through all the noise Three huge clusters of conversation really stood out.

00:00:59: First

00:01:00: The security map was being redrawn right before our eyes Specifically In the Arctic Through these murky-grey zone conflicts.

00:01:07: Okay Second The War Of Robots and I don't use that term lightly, it's just fundamentally changing how we think about mass in autonomy.

00:01:15: And the third i saw was this frantic urgent industrial scaling especially when it comes to air-and-missile defense.

00:01:22: But if you look closely at all of those... The maps?

00:01:24: The robots?

00:01:25: The missiles?

00:01:26: Yeah There is one thread tying them altogether

00:01:29: Speed?

00:01:30: Speed!

00:01:31: The speed of production, speed of adoption and maybe most importantly the speed of learning loops on the battlefield itself.

00:01:37: Okay so Let's unpack this.

00:01:39: I want to start with that map, because usually when defense analysts talk hotspots we're looking east or south but based on the sources this week We need to be looking north Way North The

00:01:50: high-north.

00:01:51: Yeah...we saw a really comprehensive breakdown from Michael Hajith Yodoshu about the Arctic.

00:01:55: He used a phrase.

00:01:56: it really stuck with me.

00:01:56: What was that?

00:02:03: And whenever we see a shift like that, it usually comes down to resources doesn't?

00:02:08: Almost always.

00:02:09: Haji Theodosu points out the article is about thirteen percent of the world's undiscovered oil and thirty percent of its undiscovering gas.

00:02:17: I mean thats massive plus you've got critical minerals like lithium and cobalt just sitting there.

00:02:22: But it isn't just what's under the ice.

00:02:24: It's the fact that the ice is disappearing,

00:02:26: right?

00:02:26: Of course climate change is opening up new shipping lanes.

00:02:29: Yeah.

00:02:29: Glee New routes between Asia and Europe.

00:02:31: they cut travel time down significantly.

00:02:34: That means you need infrastructure.

00:02:36: Russia has already committed something like what three hundred billion dollars to Arctic ports and icebreakers.

00:02:42: but here's The technical angle that makes this really interesting for

00:02:44: us.

00:02:45: How do you communicate up there?

00:02:46: how did he communicate?

00:02:47: You can't exactly lay fiber optic cables across shifting ice sheets.

00:02:51: no

00:02:52: Terrestrial cables on the landbases are sparse.

00:02:55: The environment is just too hostile, so the battle for the Arctic is actually a Battle For Space.

00:03:01: It's all about SATCOM

00:03:02: Which connects directly to what Josef Aschbacher from the ESA was talking about this week.

00:03:07: Precisely Ashbacher launched the European Resilience From Space

00:03:12: program

00:03:13: and it's a fascinating pivot.

00:03:15: that conversation has shifted from space-for-science space for security.

00:03:20: Because the terrestrial networks are either vulnerable or they just don't exist?

00:03:24: Right, so you need those low-worth orbit constellations to provide connectivity.

00:03:28: Space assets are no longer just nice to have.

00:03:31: They're a critical infrastructure for terrestrial defense.

00:03:34: It's blending the domains

00:03:36: and that infrastructure becomes a target.

00:03:38: it

00:03:38: does.

00:03:39: but let's slide down the map A bit because while the Arctic is a long term strategic play The immediate threat facing NATO was getting.

00:03:47: No, weird.

00:03:48: It's what Glenn McCartan calls the gray zone.

00:03:50: Yeah I read that post.

00:03:51: it was a bit chilling.

00:03:52: He was making point.

00:03:53: we're all waiting for Ukraine style mass invasion tanks rolling across a border.

00:03:58: but thats probably not how next conflict starts.

00:04:01: A Mass Invasion is too binary.

00:04:03: It triggers Article V. An attack on one isn't an Attack On All.

00:04:06: It unites the Alliance.

00:04:08: So instead adversaries are using these Gray Zone actions

00:04:12: false flag operations, drone incursions cutting undersea cables.

00:04:17: Things

00:04:17: that are hostile to damage the economy.

00:04:19: but maybe don't look like a full blown war.

00:04:22: yet it creates that plausible deniability.

00:04:24: It just

00:04:24: create ambiguity and slows down decision making because everyone is sitting around asking

00:04:29: Is this actually an act of war?

00:04:31: Exactly!

00:04:32: Its death by one thousand cuts.

00:04:33: And McCartan's point about solution was interesting.

00:04:35: he said non-military problems require non military solutions.

00:04:38: Right you need better eyes commercial satellite imagery Open source intelligence, ascent and zero trust cyber.

00:04:46: You have to verify reality before you can fight back.

00:04:49: Scrip away that deniability

00:04:50: which brings us To the industrial reality of fighting back.

00:04:54: And this is where Johannes Miller had some Some tough love for Europe This week.

00:04:57: oh millers take on The european defense paradoxen with something else.

00:05:01: he dropped a statistic That should be a wake-up call For everyone.

00:05:04: i saw this one

00:05:05: russia Is currently generating three times?

00:05:11: That's, I mean that is a staggering gap in basic industrial output.

00:05:16: We're not talking about advanced chips here we're talking about shells.

00:05:19: It Is and Miller's argument is that Europe has obsessed with cohesion political unity but at the same time Every nation protects its own national champion companies.

00:05:31: We have too many different types of tanks to any different supply chains

00:05:35: So were inefficient because every country wants to build it's own special version Of The Same Thing

00:05:39: Exactly.

00:05:40: He says we need to move from being security consumers, to Security Producers.

00:05:44: he's calling for a European defense dialogue that actually prioritizes output over national pride.

00:05:49: It does seem like the UK is leaning into that mindset though Sir Stuart Aathan noted The Prime Minister's commitment To European-led deterrence and actual industrial integration.

00:05:57: it's a step but Like Mueller Says there's no one size fits all when time Is the scarcest resource?

00:06:04: And right now the adversaries are moving faster.

00:06:07: Speaking of speed Let's pivot to our second theme, because if the industrial base is struggling to catch up.

00:06:13: The tech on the battlefield is absolutely sprinting.

00:06:17: We are talking about...the war of robots!

00:06:20: This is probably the most dynamic area we're tracking.

00:06:23: Jonas Singer delivered what he called a Ruthless Reality Check from the Munich Security Conference.

00:06:28: I loved that phrase.

00:06:30: What was the check?

00:06:31: He said and i'm quoting here While we debate frameworks they iterate firmware

00:06:36: Oof, yeah that hits hard.

00:06:38: It should!

00:06:39: Singer's point is that modern warfare isn't about legacy hardware anymore.

00:06:43: it's a war of robots.

00:06:45: its first-person view at FPV drone swarms Its learning loops are measured in days.

00:06:50: Right!!

00:06:51: The difference between the software industry update cycle and auto industries.

00:06:54: model your cycle but War is running on software time now.

00:06:58: And question is can big armies adapt?

00:07:00: Well, NOAA S shared a story that suggests the US Army is at least trying to.

00:07:04: The Swarmbotics example?

00:07:05: Yeah!

00:07:29: Right, whereas SwarmbotX is building hundreds of small expendable robots.

00:07:34: You flood the zone!

00:07:35: you present the adversary with too many dilemmas to solve.

00:07:38: If you lose ten?

00:07:39: Who

00:07:39: cares?!

00:07:39: You have fifty more coming.

00:07:41: It changes the risk calculus completely.

00:07:44: But...the big players aren't just sitting on their hands.

00:07:46: We saw some interesting moves from traditional primes

00:07:49: too.

00:07:49: We did.

00:07:50: it's all about integration.

00:07:51: Chris H talked about XM-Thirty Combat Vehicle.

00:07:54: Now usually we talk about armor thickness or gun caliber But the XM-Thirty is being designed as a digital foundation.

00:08:01: So it's less of a tank and more of

00:08:02: a quarterback?

00:08:03: That's great analogy, that design to control all these other unmanned systems.

00:08:07: The aerial drones...the ground robots It's a node.

00:08:10: And then you have Harold Kappa talking about GROB aircraft partnering with Helsinki.

00:08:15: That's the AI company right.

00:08:16: Yes They're taking a proven airframe from GROBB and injecting it with Helsing's A.I To create the CA-One Europa An uncrewed combat aircraft.

00:08:26: I like that approach, it's combining heritage engineering stuff we know works with modern software.

00:08:32: Feels like software defined is becoming the buzzword for everything

00:08:35: It is.

00:08:35: but my favorite robot example this week was actually underwater.

00:08:39: Did you see The Post from Stephanie C Hill at Lockheed Martin?

00:08:42: The lamprey That

00:08:43: thing is wild For anyone listening its an autonomous undersea vehicle that literally hitches a ride on a submarine Like a remora fish.

00:08:52: It

00:08:52: solves the biggest problem of underwater drones Energy.

00:08:55: The ocean is huge, batteries run out.

00:08:58: the lamprey attaches to a host charges up detaches to go to a mission act as a decoy hunt mines and then comes back to charge again.

00:09:05: It extends the subs reach without putting in human danger.

00:09:08: it's parasitic but in good way

00:09:10: symbiotic I'd say And fits into that wider trend.

00:09:13: Joe Mark Draves from Naval Group was showcasing their SeaQuest S which basically is Swiss Army Knife USV A surface drone you can outfit for anything.

00:09:22: So we've got robot fish, swarmbots on the ground and AI pilots.

00:09:26: But all this cool tech doesn't mean much if your cities are getting leveled by missiles which leads us to our third theme air in missile defense.

00:09:35: This is The Heavy Lifting And Sergey Koshman provided a very sobering perspective here.

00:09:41: He noted that In some areas serious ballistic missile threats Are now outnumbering drone alerts.

00:09:47: That's terrifying!

00:09:49: His point about resilience was powerful.

00:09:51: He basically said you can't just talk about being resilient when your power plants are being turned to

00:09:55: ash, right?

00:09:56: Resilience implies You Can Take a Punch and Bounce Back.

00:10:00: Kaushman is saying the scale of modern ballistic destruction Is too high for that!

00:10:04: You can't bounce back if The Grid has gone...you have To Stop The Missiles.

00:10:07: And That Brings Us Right Back To The Industrial Base.

00:10:10: We Need More Interceptors Faster

00:10:12: And we Are Seeing That Response.

00:10:14: Lyssa Duane is at.

00:10:15: Lockheed Martin mentioned they're planning to quadruple Tashad production.

00:10:18: That's

00:10:18: the terminal high altitude area defense system, The Big Shield and Quadrupling Production Is Not.

00:10:24: I mean you don't just flip a switch for that.

00:10:26: No That is a massive undertaking.

00:10:28: And it's not just plants, Frank St John and Jim Teichlet posted about the groundbreaking of the Munitions Acceleration Center in Arkansas.

00:10:36: The

00:10:36: munitions acceleration center?

00:10:38: The name says at all!

00:10:39: It does notice the language again acceleration.

00:10:42: they are building a research lab.

00:10:43: there are building capacity to pump out interceptors.

00:10:46: They know that in a peer conflict you run out of ammo in weeks.

00:10:50: But here's Interceptors like that are incredibly expensive.

00:10:55: If you're shooting a multi-million dollar missile at a thousand dollars drone, You can go bankrupt before your run out of ammo!

00:11:01: That is the cost exchange problem.

00:11:03: It's the fundamental economic equation of modern defense and thats why The counter UAS or Counter Drone Innovations we saw Are so critical

00:11:11: Like what David Pee And Nicholas Jabbar At Saab were exploring with the Gripen Jet Right...the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System Which is a fancy name for what, laser-guided rockets?

00:11:24: Exactly.

00:11:24: Yeah!

00:11:25: It takes a dumb rocket adds a laser seeker and turns it into smart but cheap weapon.

00:11:31: instead of firing a premier missile A pilot uses one these to take out drone.

00:11:36: that balances the equation.

00:11:37: And then you have non kinetic stuff.

00:11:39: Mark CL was talking about sprint challenge neutralizing small drones without explosives

00:11:45: which vital for cities.

00:11:47: You can't just start shooting rockets over a city center.

00:11:50: and Mike Schett from drone shield pointed out that data centers are now A major target.

00:11:55: That's

00:11:55: a good point.

00:11:56: knockout of data Center you crippled the economy Just as much is if you bombed to bridge exactly.

00:12:00: The front line is everywhere Now.

00:12:02: so we have the geopolitics, the robots?

00:12:05: The missile defense urgency but there still this gap between cool tech And soldiers actually using it.

00:12:12: let's talk about the innovation ecosystem.

00:12:14: This Is the Bridge And Kadri Tamai from NATO Diana, that's the Defense Innovation Accelerator.

00:12:19: She just hit the nail on her head.

00:12:20: she said we don't have an innovation deficit We haven't adoption deficit.

00:12:23: I feel like i hear that a lot but what does it actually mean in this context?

00:12:27: It means there are plenty of smart startups inventing amazing things But military procurement system is too slow to buy them.

00:12:35: She says capability is defined by you can field and update at operational speed.

00:12:40: So if a technology is stuck in a pilot program for five years, it's not a capability.

00:12:44: It's museum exhibit

00:12:46: exactly.

00:12:47: But we are seeing some companies breakthrough.

00:12:49: I really like the example of consteller with a lowercase C.

00:12:53: Jamie Martin Lozano shared that one.

00:12:54: they just raised thirty seven million.

00:12:57: What's fascinating?

00:12:57: Is where they started way.

00:12:59: farming

00:12:59: yes using thermal satellites to monitor crop health but it turns out High precision thermal sensors are really, really good at detecting the heat signatures of submarines.

00:13:11: So now they're shifting to defense.

00:13:13: that is the classic dual use pivot.

00:13:15: The tech doesn't care if it's looking at corn or a Corvette.

00:13:18: It Is and we need more of it.

00:13:19: Giller-Cocac from InnoTalent Plus was talking about their Dual Use Studio Launch in Turkey.

00:13:25: Its specifically designed to connect these innovators with procurement To build the plumbing so ideas can flow to end user.

00:13:31: So if we step back and look at week six, seven as a whole.

00:13:35: What's the big takeaway?

00:13:36: I

00:13:37: think it comes back to Jonah Singer's point about firmware versus frameworks.

00:13:41: were moving from world of static plans two dynamic adaptation.

00:13:46: The adversaries are iterating their firmware every day Europe in the US or realizing that they have money on tech but haven't had speed.

00:13:55: It feels like the industry is finally waking up to the fact that a perfect weapon five years from now, Is useless compared to good enough weapons today.

00:14:03: Precisely!

00:14:04: The best system... ...is actually on ramp ready-to-fly or in soldiers' hands.

00:14:09: Discussions these past two weeks show unified realization.

00:14:13: We need build factories, ship code and do it Now

00:14:17: From strategy to execution, it's fascinating time watching this space.

00:14:21: If you enjoyed this episode new episodes drop every week.

00:14:25: Also check out our other editions on ICT and Tech Insights, HealthTech Cloud digital products & services artificial intelligence and sustainability in green ICT.

00:14:34: Thanks for listening!

00:14:35: Don't forget to subscribe.

00:14:36: see you next time.