Best of LinkedIn: Defense Tech CW 26/ 27

00:00:00: Provided by Thomas Allgaier and Frennus, based on the most relevant posts on LinkedIn about defense tech in CW-twenty six and twenty seven.

00:00:07: Frenness is a B to B market research company that supports ICT providers with a structured defense market entry framework designed to move them from European Defense Opportunity Landscape To qualified ministry conversations within six to eight weeks.

00:00:21: you can find more info In The Description.

00:00:23: And uh welcome to the deep dive.

00:00:26: So imagine you build this, you know revolutionary piece of defense tech.

00:00:30: You test it It works flawlessly in combat scenarios and then while you just sit back and watch your startup go totally bankrupt anyway.

00:00:36: Yeah Which is honestly a brutal reality check

00:00:39: right?

00:00:39: And it happens because you don't understand the government's plumbing.

00:00:43: So today we are diving into the top insights from the defense tech industry over calendar weeks, twenty six and twenty seven.

00:00:49: And We're breaking down what they actually mean for you?

00:00:51: You know founders engineers and strategists out there exactly

00:00:55: because the market is shifting incredibly fast right now.

00:00:57: Yeah I mean we were seeing changes in how money flows The software architecture on a battlefield even physical evolution of drums.

00:01:05: Yeah, the ground is basically moving beneath our feet.

00:01:07: So let's just start with that plumbing.

00:01:09: Alison Smith posted this incredible breakdown about the dynamic That kills so many brilliant companies.

00:01:15: Oh yeah!

00:01:15: The SBIR funding crap.

00:01:16: Exactly She points out that technically gifted founders They constantly fail because they treat early innovation grants Like SBIR Funding like an actual revenue model

00:01:26: Which it absolutely not

00:01:28: Right.

00:01:28: Alison notes An SBIR is a license to hunt.

00:01:35: Yeah, the operational system improvement money.

00:01:37: I mean that is crucial because early stage funding just proves a concept.

00:01:41: but BA-Seven Funding is where real procurement dollars actually live.

00:01:44: The big buck

00:01:45: Exactly it's the Money for Fielding and Sustaining Tech at Scale.

00:01:49: But you know getting from a prototype grant to ABA seven budget line means surviving the Valley of Death And that has made so much worse by continuing resolutions.

00:01:57: Oh

00:01:58: man, Continuing Resolutions.

00:01:59: if you are a founder A CR is basically your worst nightmare.

00:02:03: Without a doubt.

00:02:04: Congress fails to pass the budget The government operates on a C-R and federal agencies Are just frozen.

00:02:10: They can't start new programs right?

00:02:11: Right they're legally bound To last year's funding levels.

00:02:15: So If Your Startup Is Waiting For A Transition Contract A CR Basically Just Hits Pause On Your Life Support

00:02:22: which feeds perfectly into what Molly Jainer is calling the patience problem.

00:02:27: She shared this story about a founder who was four years in, The tech works.

00:02:31: he has Air Force traction but his VC fund wants the next financial milestone.

00:02:36: now

00:02:37: and in defense that milestone probably still two-and-a half years away exactly just exposes on massive structural flaw.

00:02:45: venture capital operates on seven to ten year cycle.

00:02:48: they need hyper growth an exit.

00:02:50: Defense procurement is ten to fifteen year reality.

00:02:53: Yeah, they plan budgets years in advance

00:02:55: Right.

00:02:55: so Molly makes this great point that VC's pattern matching defense startups like commercial fast timelines will literally kill good companies.

00:03:04: You need capital partners who understand you might just sit near four for a while

00:03:07: relying on non-dilutive funding.

00:03:08: yet It is like trying to sprint a marathon While holding your breath.

00:03:12: the time lines Just do not match.

00:03:13: That Is A Great Way To Put it.

00:03:15: and it is Not Just bureaucracy right?

00:03:17: It is The Physical Reality of Military Hardware.

00:03:20: Christopher Spagnoletti brought this up about solid rocket motors.

00:03:24: Oh

00:03:24: right, the qualification phase!

00:03:26: Yeah

00:03:26: people see a successful test flight and assume it is ready to ship.

00:03:30: but Christopher points out A solid rocket motor can take years just to qualify.

00:03:35: Because of all the intense testing?

00:03:37: Exactly, extreme vibration thermal cycling drop tests you Can spend a decade on one part before it actually flies.

00:03:44: You can't Just push an over-the-air software update To a rocket Motor mid flight.

00:03:48: yeah

00:03:48: physics doesn't care about your Software sprint cycle and that physical friction is why Dennis Pape Emphasize The gap between prototyping And production.

00:03:57: Right, with the DIU.

00:03:58: Yeah!

00:03:58: The Defense Innovation Unit is great at fast-tracking prototypes.

00:04:02: but a prototype just proves your tech works within the laws of physics.

00:04:05: it does not prove a business exists.

00:04:07: A business needs a funded program of record.

00:04:09: Exactly.

00:04:11: Which brings us to Brent Brown's post.

00:04:14: He basically said invention is the easy part.

00:04:16: now execution beats invention.

00:04:19: Oh, absolutely.

00:04:20: The market is definitely waking up.

00:04:21: Yeah the winners won't have the flashiest demo.

00:04:24: They will be the ones who can stamp out the ten thousandth unit as cheaply and securely As the first...

00:04:29: The Demo wins the headline but the assembly line wins the war.

00:04:33: But um let's follow that logic.

00:04:35: Say you survive the valley of death You get the funding And you manufacture Ten-thousand autonomous units.

00:04:42: What happens when you deploy them?

00:04:44: Well if you cant coordinate then they are a total operational liability.

00:04:47: Exactly The bottleneck shifts entirely to the software architecture.

00:04:52: Kublai Y published this great piece arguing.

00:04:55: militaries are doing AI totally backward right now.

00:04:58: How so?

00:04:59: Well, they buy sensors drones and tactical clouds as isolated products first And then you know They try to build some middleware patch to bolt them all together later.

00:05:07: Wait

00:05:08: I have to push back a little here.

00:05:09: haven't we been doing This kind of integration for years like with Palantir in combat zones?

00:05:14: We have, yeah.

00:05:15: But the underlying mechanics and specifically this speed Have fundamentally changed.

00:05:20: Jason Bowers brought up an incredible comparison for this.

00:05:23: In Afghanistan using software to map insurgent networks took days or even weeks.

00:05:27: Right but today look at Ukraine's Delta system.

00:05:31: They pull every drone feed Every ground sensor onto a single tablet in near real time At the tactical edge.

00:05:37: Going from days to near real time is a massive paradigm shift, and US companies are aggressively chasing this.

00:05:43: Christian Brose posted about Andrewle's lattice software winning the U.S.

00:05:47: Army's next-gen command and control...

00:05:49: Because they shrink targeting timelines from hours to under a minute!

00:05:52: Under

00:05:53: a minute?

00:05:53: That is completely insane!

00:05:55: It is new baseline for survival And it proves Kublai's whole point.

00:05:59: You have to define the command architecture first, how do you distribute the computational load?

00:06:03: How do you preserve human decision-making when comms go

00:06:06: down?".

00:06:06: It essentially makes this software the most lethal weapon we have.

00:06:10: Brenna Kuiper discussed regarding one brief in Grant Demerey.

00:06:14: They asked what if AI planning software actually generates more combat power than physical ships and aircraft combined?

00:06:21: It is a genuinely provocative thought.

00:06:23: Yeah, if your software out-thinks the adversary instantly... ...the hardware is almost a secondary commodity.

00:06:29: It becomes a commodity?

00:06:30: Yes!

00:06:31: But that Software Defined command….

00:06:33: …is really being tested in the physical world right now because, well, lattice networks assume your comms actually function

00:06:40: Right.

00:06:40: what if the adversary just severs connection or hides from sensors?

00:06:44: Exactly and this is the physical reality with drones.

00:06:47: Tim Desider posted his fascinating breakdown of the Bionic Eagle UAV.

00:06:52: We usually judge drones by range or payload.

00:06:55: But Tim says the new arms race is signature discipline,

00:06:58: specifically acoustic signatures making them quiet right

00:07:01: which is incredibly difficult engineering.

00:07:03: you have to rethink.

00:07:04: propellers dampen motors use radar absorbing materials

00:07:07: and it matters because in places like Ukraine sound as The ultimate early warning system.

00:07:12: soldiers hear them before they see them.

00:07:14: so if You can't here at coming your reaction time just vanishes.

00:07:17: And It Is Not Just Acoustics.

00:07:19: Luca Leon highlighted an even scarier trend.

00:07:22: Fiber optic controlled FPV drones.

00:07:25: Oh man, when I read this...I was blown away.

00:07:28: We are talking about a drone flying at sixty miles per hour tethered by literal glass wire.

00:07:34: It sounds like science fiction right?

00:07:35: But it unwinds the fiber-optic cable as it flies.

00:07:38: There's almost zero tension so doesn't snap

00:07:41: And tactical advantage there is huge

00:07:43: Massive Because it is not broadcasting radio frequencies, It's totally immune to traditional RF jamming.

00:07:49: You just cannot jam light traveling in a physical wire.

00:07:52: That is terrifying for a defender.

00:07:54: So if you can't jam them and they are quiet And too small for radar How do military shoot down swarms today?

00:07:59: Well brute force honestly.

00:08:01: Mark C L analyzed the South Korean live fire drill against drone swarm.

00:08:05: They use Vulcan cannons Portable lasers even soldiers with shotguns.

00:08:09: They downed forty four out of fifty drones.

00:08:11: I mean Forty-four out of fifty sounds pretty successful.

00:08:15: Paper, yeah!

00:08:16: But Aviv Barzohar pointed it out.

00:08:18: they had to use eight Vulcan cannons firing eight hundred rounds per boost to do It.

00:08:23: the sheer amount of ammo is just staggering.

00:08:25: So its completely unsustainable.

00:08:27: logistics wise.

00:08:28: Exactly Aviv argues relying on dumb rounds against some true combat swarm attacking at night for multiple vectors Unrealistic, you will run out of bullets before they run outta drones.

00:08:39: So we absolutely need autonomous interception!

00:08:42: Humans and dumb ammo just can't keep up with the math in a modern battlefield?

00:08:46: They

00:08:46: really can't... But Emre Porcolab made an important counterpoint here.

00:08:50: AI is needed for scale, yes.

00:08:53: But the ultimate strategic advantage... ...is still human machine integration.

00:08:57: Right!

00:08:57: It's not just letting tech run wild.

00:08:59: Exactly it about how effectively a human operator under extreme pressure can interface with that AI to make judgement calls

00:09:06: Amplifying Human Judgment With Machine Speed.

00:09:10: And you know this push for autonomy isn't exclusively about lethality.

00:09:14: Connor Love shared story totally refrains this.

00:09:17: An American Apache went down near the Strait of Hormuz.

00:09:20: Two pilots stranded in the water.

00:09:22: And usually you have to risk more humans and a dangerous environment to save them?

00:09:25: Yes,

00:09:26: exactly!

00:09:26: The compounding risk of rescue operations.

00:09:29: but this time they deployed a ceramic autonomous boat.

00:09:33: it navigated out reached the pilots and brought both backs safely.

00:09:37: Wow, The first rescue of its kind.

00:09:40: we talked so much about strike capabilities.

00:09:42: it is amazing to see autonomy keeping humans out of harm's way.

00:09:46: that Is incredible?

00:09:47: And you know bringing back to the human element is a perfect transition.

00:09:50: because all this tech Rescue boats fiber optic drones rocket motors It all relies on a humid ecosystem

00:09:56: the talent the geography and how it has ultimately sold.

00:10:00: Yeah, the sector is undergoing a massive restructuring to find this talent.

00:10:04: Zach Silber highlighted Bruce Katz's research on this.

00:10:07: They mapped out defense assets and found universities are becoming the new heavy anchors of the Defense Tech ecosystem.

00:10:13: Right, but they are changing how they do it.

00:10:15: They aren't just pumping out entry-level engineers—they're building massive innovation hubs aligned with industry like Old Dominion University in Virginia or Vanderbilt and Chattanooga

00:10:26: And specifically building them off campus so that they can have SCIFs those secure facilities and partner directly to the DoD in private capital?

00:10:34: They're building localized moats of cleared talent.

00:10:37: But there is a massive friction point in hiring.

00:10:40: Ron Loomis posted about veterans transitioning into tech, and it is a sobering reality check.

00:10:46: It's such a massive market failure!

00:10:49: You have a veteran who managed the fifty million dollar logistics operation in a war zone?

00:10:53: They had exact adaptability and leadership.

00:10:56: startups need... But they can't get hired for mid-level roles.

00:11:00: Because of the automated resume scanners?

00:11:02: Exactly!

00:11:03: Applicant tracking systems look for neat corporate keywords like B to B sauce pipeline, They don't know how to translate platoon leader so highly qualified vets get auto rejected by an algorithm.

00:11:14: It is a profound disconnect and that disconnect mirrors How these companies market themselves to buyers.

00:11:22: Myrth Dodens called it the dual-use marketing dilemma.

00:11:24: This was fascinating.

00:11:26: Modern defense engineering is all about being scrappy and resourceful.

00:11:30: She gave the example of soldiers' three D printing explosives with old water bottles And coconut husks,

00:11:36: which is exactly what The Warfighter wants.

00:11:38: right but if you are a duel use startup You also have to sell two enterprise commercial buyers And they do not want coconut

00:11:45: husks.

00:11:46: No, They Want Polished Scalable Certified Software Suites.

00:11:50: So how you market that?

00:11:51: It is like showing up to a pitch meeting wearing muddy combat boots and tailored tuxedo.

00:11:55: at the exact same time You try look good for CIO and alienate the battlefield commander.

00:12:01: It

00:12:01: requires such highly nuanced communication strategy Because ultimately your really selling trust.

00:12:06: So pulling all these threads together The brutal timelines The software defined command Unjammable drones The hiring friction Where's?

00:12:15: Well,

00:12:15: looking at the big picture I keep coming back to a specific financial move we saw this week.

00:12:20: Ajay Jain posted about ICI-E, The European Satellite Intelligence Company.

00:12:24: They just raised one billion euros.

00:12:27: That is massive funding round

00:12:28: It IS.

00:12:29: But look what they actually do!

00:12:31: They don't build kinetic weapons... ...they build persistent radar satellites that see through clouds and operate at night.. ..They sell continuous awareness.

00:12:39: Okay so What's the main takeaway there?

00:12:42: The provocative thought here is that the future of defense tech isn't necessarily about building the next weapon.

00:12:48: As hardware becomes commoditized, like Brett Brown said... ...the physical platform isn't the decisive advantage.

00:12:55: The real prize is owning the data layer.

00:12:58: Owning the data-layer?

00:12:59: Exactly!

00:13:00: Yeah… …The side they can continuously sense classify and understand reality faster than the adversary—that side wins.

00:13:06: Wow – That brings us full circle right back to the beginning.

00:13:09: We started talking with a plumbing of procurement But the ultimate plumbing of the future battlefield is the sensing and data infrastructure.

00:13:16: If you don't have that installed, You are just operating in the dark

00:13:19: And operating In The Dark Is The Fastest Way To Become Completely Obsolete!

00:13:37: Keep your eyes on the data layer.

00:13:38: Thank you so much for listening and remember to subscribe,