Best of LinkedIn: Defense Tech CW 38/ 39

00:00:00: This episode is provided by Thomas Allgaier and Franis, based on the most relevant linked in posts about defense tech from CW-ThirtyEightandThirtyNine.

00:00:09: Franus is a B to B market research company that supports ICT providers with a structured Defense Market Entry Framework designed to move them from European Defense Opportunity Landscape to qualified ministry conversations within

00:00:28: six point blank range of a four hundred dollar plastic quadcopter.

00:00:34: Right, just so you can shoot it out in the sky with a mechanical gun like that isn't a hypothetical scenario from some sci-fi movie?

00:00:41: No, It's really not.

00:00:42: right is actually happening on the ground right now because the economics of modern warfare are entirely broken.

00:00:50: So today for those of you listening who spend your days deep and digital transformation or building enterprise tech We are exploring the top defense tech trends extracted from these sources.

00:01:28: If you look at the defense sector right now, um...the drone market is incredibly crowded.

00:01:32: Oh absolutely!

00:01:34: But beneath all of the flashy hardware reveals and PR The fundamental issue keeping people awake at night Is just the brutal math of defence.

00:01:41: I mean..The economics of interception simply do not work anymore.

00:01:45: Yeah....the math is terrifying if your If you are managing a national budget, Joshua Webb actually shared a recent projection that the counter UAS market meaning the tech designed specifically to defeat unmanned aerial systems.

00:01:59: It's expected to reach thirty billion dollars annually by twenty-thirty.

00:02:03: Thirty

00:02:04: billion just

00:02:05: for counter uas.

00:02:06: Just

00:02:06: for that

00:02:07: and The driving force behind that massive number is pure cost asymmetry.

00:02:11: like military forces cannot maintain a doctrine where they neutralize the four hundred dollar off-the-shelf commercial drone using one hundred and twenty thousand dollars legacy missile.

00:02:21: Right, I mean you don't need background in macroeconomics to see how quickly that bankrupts the nation.

00:02:26: Exactly!

00:02:27: You run out of money long before the adversary runs outta cheap drones

00:02:30: Which brings up a really challenging question for you.

00:02:33: Is the solution here just an arms race to the bottom?

00:02:36: Like our defense contractors, trying to figure out how build a three hundred dollar missile to shoot down the four-hundred dollars drone or are we looking at?

00:02:44: complete paradigm shift in airspace is defended.

00:02:47: It's definitely structural paradigm shift because it still relies on finite physical stockpile.

00:02:56: Instead, we are moving away from kinetic interceptors as the default.

00:03:01: We're pivoting hard towards software-defined systems and directed energy Angus being detailed.

00:03:06: a really fascinating example of this shift.

00:03:09: Oh!

00:03:09: The drone shield one right?

00:03:10: Yeah Drone Shield.

00:03:11: partnered with AIM Defense They integrated system called the Fractal High Power Laser into their drone sentry platform.

00:03:18: Okay So instead of human operator pushing button to launch physical explosive.

00:03:23: They now have this open, software-defined command interface that seamlessly includes a hard kill laser layer.

00:03:30: Okay I hear you on lasers but let's play Devil's Advocate for a second.

00:03:34: Lasers get heavily scattered by fogs smoke low clouds rain

00:03:39: yeah atmospheric distortion

00:03:41: right which a battlefield has plenty of.

00:03:42: so are we over hyping a fair weather solution here?

00:03:46: Is the laser really a silver bullet?

00:03:48: That is critical pushback and your absolutely right about the atmospheric limitations.

00:03:53: Look, lasers are not a silver bullet.

00:03:56: But they don't have to be!

00:03:57: The goal is just offload the volume.

00:04:00: If the laser handles say fifty percent of cheap drones on clear days at practically zero cost per shot

00:04:06: You've saved millions in kinetic missiles for cloudy day Exactly.

00:04:11: And the momentum is real.

00:04:13: Mike Dodd highlighted that first joint laser weapon system contracts were actually awarded this year.

00:04:18: Wow

00:04:18: already

00:04:19: Yeah, that milestone came after five different directed energy prototypes successfully tracked and destroyed multiple fast moving targets.

00:04:27: And they did this within just a twelve month testing window.

00:04:30: so the tech is definitely crossing the valley of death from prototype to procurement.

00:04:35: That urgency defined alternatives to missiles makes complete sense especially when you look at the extreme tactical adaptations happening right now.

00:04:43: Doug Livermore shared rather chilling anecdote about this?

00:04:47: Oh... The F-sixteen?

00:04:49: A Ukrainian F-sixteen was recently recorded using its internal twenty millimeter Vulcan cannon to destroy a Russian Jarin V drone.

00:04:56: It's just wild!

00:04:58: That is the exact scenario you mentioned at the start, risking a multi million dollar airframe closing to practically point blank range purely to conserve scarce air-to-air missiles

00:05:08: because they need them for higher priority threats like cruise missiles or enemy bombers.

00:05:12: exactly

00:05:13: it's the ultimate display of broken economics.

00:05:16: They are gambling an irreplaceable asset because the ammunition is just too precious to

00:05:21: waste.".

00:05:22: But here's where the tech race gets even wilder, because the threat is evolving past traditional detection methods entirely.

00:05:30: Jimmy Lee pointed out a massive gap in current defensive technology.

00:05:34: The fiber optic ones?

00:05:35: Yes zero RF fiber optic drones

00:05:38: right.

00:05:38: let's break down why that matters.

00:05:40: for second usually A drone has to broadcast a radio frequency, an RF signal back to its operator to transmit live video.

00:05:49: Electronic warfare systems detect that signal and jam it by blasting noise on the same frequency severing the link.

00:05:56: But these new drones they don't emit a signal at all.

00:05:59: They are literally flying while unspooling miles of hair.

00:06:02: thin fiber optic cable behind them

00:06:05: Just a physical wire.

00:06:06: Yeah, the video data travels through of physical wire.

00:06:09: So because there is zero radio frequency emitted.

00:06:12: you can't jam it.

00:06:13: It completely slips past conventional RF based perimeter defenses.

00:06:18: so what's the countermeasure?

00:06:19: Well Jimmy Lee notes that Because of this acoustic sensing is emerging as the new mandatory core defense layer.

00:06:26: The software using artificial intelligence to parse the chaotic noise of a battlefield right it isolates the specific acoustic signature of a drone motor

00:06:35: and then it triangulates its position just by listening.

00:06:37: Exactly!

00:06:38: If we connect this to the bigger picture, This cat-and-mouse game changes how entire nations architect their defense.

00:06:45: Tim DeZener posted a brilliant analysis of Greece's three point one billion euro Achilles' Shield program.

00:06:51: Right...Achilles' shield?

00:06:52: Yeah.

00:06:53: And what is fascinating here is that Greece isn't taking money in buying massive piles physical interceptors.

00:06:59: They aren't stocking up on Raphael Spider or IAAI's Barak MX missiles.

00:07:04: What are they doing instead?

00:07:05: They're explicitly buying an AI-enabled command architecture to sit above all those disparate hardware systems.

00:07:12: Oh, so it's essentially what our listeners do with enterprise cloud architecture.

00:07:16: Yes exactly

00:07:17: you have a load balancer routing incoming traffic To the most efficient cost effective server based on real time context.

00:07:24: except here The traffic is in coming swarm of threats and the server Is a portfolio of lasers guns and multi million dollar interceptors.

00:07:32: That is the perfect analogy.

00:07:34: Layered defense is no longer about who has the biggest stockpile of missiles, it's about who have the most intelligent software to decide in a fraction or second which threat gets the laser?

00:07:45: Which gets the cannon and which get expensive interceptor?

00:07:48: It's software maximizing efficiency hardware.

00:07:52: Which creates direct causal link with our second theme autonomy.

00:07:56: an unmanned warfare Right.

00:07:58: Because defense forces are deploying these AI architectures and directed energy weapons to fix the economics of interception, The offensive side is counter-reacting.

00:08:07: They're doubling down on cheap mass And moving rapidly toward software defined autonomy.

00:08:11: Yeah

00:08:12: they have too.

00:08:13: Before we dive into how this offense is evolving To bypass new defenses If you ARE finding it useful Make sure you subscribe.

00:08:20: so catch all our future deep dives Into these rapidly shifting tech landscapes.

00:08:26: And looking at the speed of adaptation on the offensive side, it's just staggering.

00:08:31: Mikhailov Fedorov recently announced Ukraine's launch of The Army Of Robots.

00:08:35: I mean drones are already executing over ninety-five percent of their strikes which is a massive metric on its own.

00:08:41: Ninety five percent is huge!

00:08:43: It really is.

00:08:44: but the stated new goal is to shift the most dangerous physical tasks like medical evacuation and mind clearing holding forward positions entirely into robotic systems.

00:08:53: I always get a little skeptical when i hear army of robots, you know?

00:08:56: Like are we talking about true thinking autonomy here or Are these just glorified RC cars with guns taped to them?

00:09:03: That is a crucial distinction.

00:09:05: Dr Kristof Stock broke down a recent engagement called Operation Vivaldi.

00:09:09: Oh!I saw that post.

00:09:10: Yeah in this operation unmanned ground vehicles and aerial drones successfully cleared entrenched positions before human infantry advanced.

00:09:17: Wow But He was very careful to clarify the reality of technology.

00:09:23: While it looks autonomous from a distance, The current state-of-the art is still heavily reliant on remote control.

00:09:30: So they're still human in the loop?

00:09:31: Always!

00:09:32: The humans are holding joysticks and making decisions.

00:09:35: They just aren't physically sitting at the line of fire.

00:09:38: We are not deploying independent thinking terminator swarms

00:09:43: But the hardware itself is getting terrifyingly capable while we wait for that full autonomy software to catch up.

00:09:49: I mean, Ladislav Klotchkov and Robert FinTech did extensive teardowns of the new Garen IV drone.

00:09:54: The specs on it are wild!

00:09:56: Let's look at them because they show how fast the baseline is moving.

00:10:00: This isn't a slow plastic propeller drone.

00:10:02: It has jet-powered...it utilizes Chinese TJ-II engine five hundred kilometers per hour at an eight kilometer altitude.

00:10:10: And

00:10:10: crucially it has mesh communications and a sixteen channel CRPA antenna.

00:10:15: Yeah, we should probably unpack CRPA for those listening because that really highlights the technological arms race.

00:10:21: Sure so CRPA stands for Controlled Reception Pattern Antenna.

00:10:26: Standard GPS antennas just listen in all directions right?

00:10:30: So if enemy jammer screams radio noise from left The whole antenna goes deaf.

00:10:35: then drone gets lost.

00:10:36: but a CRPA is different.

00:10:37: Right, the CRPA has multiple distinct antenna elements.

00:10:42: The onboard software listens recognizes the jamming noise coming from left and mathematically creates a null A targeted blind spot in that specific direction.

00:10:51: So it essentially tunes out the jammer while still listening to faint GPS signals from satellites above?

00:10:57: Exactly!

00:10:57: It's brilliant piece of engineering designed specifically for resist electronic warfare.

00:11:02: It really feels like we're moving from a traditional hardware-centric military paradigm to something resembling the smartphone industry.

00:11:09: Yes

00:11:10: The physical chassis of the drone, metal or plastic – even engine.

00:11:13: it matters less than how fast you can push over-the air operating system updates

00:11:18: so they can bypass latest jamming frequencies encountered yesterday.

00:11:22: Exactly!

00:11:23: Hardware is rapidly becoming commoditized as just delivery mechanism for software And the West is rushing to build unified operating systems, to manage all these disparate platforms.

00:11:34: Michael McCormick shared a compelling look at system called ARTAC.

00:11:39: They are solving massive data fragmentation problems.

00:11:42: right now.

00:11:43: if you have air drones ground robots and subsurface systems like the chasing M-II underwater vehicle.

00:11:50: they'll have different proprietary controllers in screens.

00:11:53: it's

00:11:53: nightmare for operator

00:11:55: complete nightmare.

00:11:56: so ARTAK takes the live video and sensor feeds from completely different multi-vendor platforms, infuses them into one shared three dimensional operational picture.

00:12:06: Oh wow!

00:12:08: And they're viewing this unified data environment inside MetaQuest Three virtual reality headsets.

00:12:14: Okay so instead of an operator sitting in a command tent juggling five different proprietary laptops and radio headsets They have one unified immersive API for entire battle space.

00:12:26: Yes

00:12:26: Interoperability is the holy grail.

00:12:29: And once you achieve that interoperability, The next step...is making that unified swarm capable of defending itself without human intervention right?

00:12:37: Exactly!

00:12:38: Samantha Domingo highlighted Lockheed Martin's Kari system which was recently demonstrated at the T-Rex event.

00:12:44: Oh the T-Rex event, yeah.

00:12:46: This is where we cross into true autonomy.

00:12:49: they showcased a defensive swarm that uses artificial intelligence to detect engage and adapt incoming hostile drones in real time.

00:12:56: The swarm itself learns the behavior of the incoming threat and reacts collectively.

00:13:02: Okay let's take a breath here.

00:13:03: We are talking about lasers burning drones out of the sky, AI enterprise architectures acting as load balancers for missiles and autonomous jet-powered swarms coordinating in virtual reality headsets.

00:13:15: That's a lot.

00:13:16: But... The physical world still exists

00:13:18: Right!

00:13:19: And this raises an important question How do we actually build all these?

00:13:23: Which brings us to our third & final theme Rebuilding the arsenal Focusing entirely on capital, procurement and realities at the industrial base.

00:13:32: Well The private capital markets are certainly trying to brute force a solution to this.

00:13:37: Matt Atkins did a roundup of recent defense tech funding and the numbers are just staggering.

00:13:41: Oh, completely!

00:13:43: A company called Hadrian raised one point three seven billion dollars to build highly automated defense industrial factories.

00:13:49: Castellan closed a billion dollars specifically to develop low-cost hypersonic missiles

00:13:54: And Elana Gold highlighted Covenant.

00:13:57: Yes, Covenant.

00:13:57: They just emerged from stealth mode at a valuation over a billion dollars.

00:14:01: What is fascinating about Covenant?

00:14:03: Is the traction they achieved while completely under-the radar.

00:14:07: I mean...they had already raised two hundred and fifty million dollars completed two hundred test flights And secured one hundred thirty million in actual military contracts for their Anthem cruise missiles Before most people even knew that company existed.

00:14:20: It's incredible

00:14:22: And their entire pitch is that they are designing these missiles explicitly for low-cost, automated mass production.

00:14:29: They're trying to solve the broken economics of interception from supply side.

00:14:33: Sure!

00:14:34: The venture capital was certainly flowing... but traditional procurement and manufacturing are hitting a massive immovable physical bottleneck.

00:14:42: The real world strikes back?

00:14:43: Exactly.

00:14:45: Justin Neurdrom highlighted very stark reality about US Navy's current operations….

00:14:50: The Navy fired roughly two hundred and twenty interceptors in the Middle East over a fifteen-month period to defend shipping lanes.

00:14:57: That is massive burn rate of ammunition!

00:14:59: Huge, but replacing those specific SM six and SM three rounds takes thirty-six to thirty nine months after the funding has even approved.

00:15:08: Thirty-six months just to replace what was fired in few weeks?

00:15:12: Yeah

00:15:12: How's that possible on modern industrial

00:15:14: economy?!

00:15:15: Well, because the entire US solid rocket motor industrial base has consolidated over the decades from six primary manufacturers down to just two.

00:15:25: Only two?

00:15:26: Only two.

00:15:27: and this is exactly where your smartphone software update analogy hits a brick wall.

00:15:33: you cannot write a software update to bypass chemistry.

00:15:37: What do you mean by bypassing chemistry?

00:15:39: Like what is actually taking so long?

00:15:41: okay, So solid rocket fuel.

00:15:43: Is a highly volatile composite propellant.

00:15:46: it requires an oxidizer called ammonium perchlorate right which is essentially produced By only one main domestic plant in the US.

00:15:54: and You don't just stamp out rocket fuel like middle parts.

00:15:58: you have to mix the oxidizer the fuel, and a rubber rebinder in massive specialized planetary vacuum mixers to ensure absolutely no air bubbles form.

00:16:08: Why are air bubbles such a big deal?

00:16:10: Because if tiny air bubble forms in the mixture it becomes a fiery pocket during launch that can literally blow the missile apart from inside.

00:16:18: Oh wow Okay

00:16:19: Yeah.

00:16:19: so once its perfectly mixed The propellant has to be poured into motor casing And sit in specialized curing pits for days or even weeks at very specific temperatures.

00:16:30: So you can't rush it.

00:16:31: You cannot rush It.

00:16:32: the production rates are strictly governed by thermal dynamics chemical processing and massive safety tooling.

00:16:39: if a curing pit takes a week to cure a motor safely A billion dollars in venture capital doesn't make it cure in a day.

00:16:45: That is a brutal reality check.

00:16:47: Hmm software moves at the speed of light But hardware still moves at this beat of chemical reactions And I guess that explains why we're seeing global procurement models fundamentally shifting.

00:16:57: definitely

00:16:58: Manuo Rajan noted that the European Union is currently directing over seven hundred million euros and India is completely rewriting its defense acquisition frameworks.

00:17:08: They aren't just buying finished weapons from prime contractors anymore,

00:17:11: they want the capability itself

00:17:13: right?

00:17:13: They are explicitly buying the industrial capacity to build those weapons.

00:17:17: .They want the supply chain ,the tooling... The planetary mixers.. And the engineering talent to be resident within their own borders.

00:17:23: Because if you just buy the finished missile, You are entirely dependent on someone else's thirty-six month curie pit timeline when you run out.

00:17:30: If you by that capacity and the intellectual property... ...you control your ability to scale and iterate the next version.

00:17:37: But there is a massive regulatory roadblock especially in Europe.

00:17:41: Willem Moulachauer points out That even with this desperate push for localized capacity Fragmented regulation is choking system before it can scale

00:17:50: The red tape.

00:17:51: Yes, so let's say a brilliant defense startup proves its technology in one NATO country.

00:17:56: They win a rigorous trial get incredible feedback from the military operators on the ground and prove their software works under The current system.

00:18:03: they often have to start the entire expensive multi-year certification process over From scratch just to sell that exact same system To a neighboring allied country.

00:18:14: it's so inefficient.

00:18:15: Mulukhauer argues that this failure to connect successful tactical trials to actual cross-border acquisition is now the single biggest risked defense readiness.

00:18:25: So what does all mean?

00:18:26: When we look at lasers, AI enterprise routing autonomous swarms and the brutal reality of chemical curing pits where does it leave us?

00:18:34: It means the ultimate metric in defense power has fundamentally changed.

00:18:38: For last fifty years.

00:18:39: power was defined by having a platform with maximum possible capability right like the stealthiest jet or longest range radar.

00:18:48: Today, The New Metric is Velocity!

00:18:51: It's about how quickly a nation's combined industrial and software ecosystem can take a hard bloody lesson learned on the battlefield.

00:18:58: on a Tuesday push an over-the-air software update to the fleet.

00:19:02: Wednesday adjusts automated manufacturing tooling.

00:19:05: Thursday have newly adapted mass produced hardware rolling off assembly line by Friday.

00:19:11: That speed is everything

00:19:14: it.

00:19:15: The friction between the speed of code and the reality of curing pits is a defining challenge for our era, which leaves us with this final rather unsettling thought to consider.

00:19:26: We've talked about how software defines the mission... ...and how distributed automated manufacturing might soon allow militaries change hardware on-the-fly at tactical edge.

00:19:36: But if that vision comes true….

00:19:38: …the very nature of geopolitical power shifts.

00:19:42: What happens to global stability when a nation's most dangerous terrifying weapon is no longer static, countable stockpile of legacy nuclear or conventional missiles hidden in silos but rather the invisible algorithmic speed and adaptability of its distributed production line?

00:20:00: It's completely different kind of arms race one where The Factory Is The Weapon.

00:20:04: If you enjoyed this episode new episodes drop every two weeks.

00:20:08: also check out our other editions on cloud insights and sovereignty ICT and Tech Insights, Digital Products & Services, AI and Agents Systems, Green ICT in Sustainable AI and HealthTech.