Best of LinkedIn: Defense Tech CW 42/ 43

00:00:00: Provided by Thomas Ogier and Frenis, based on the most relevant posts on LinkedIn about DefenseTech in CW-Forty-Two and Forty-Three, Frenis is a B to B market research company that equips product and strategy teams with market and competitive intelligence across the defense industry.

00:00:15: Welcome to the deep dive.

00:00:16: This session is really for you, the DefenseTech professional.

00:00:19: We're cutting through the noise, giving you a synthesized look at what was really driving the conversation on LinkedIn in those couple of weeks.

00:00:26: The focus, well, it's the tangible shift we're seeing in defense industrial strategy.

00:00:30: Exactly.

00:00:31: And what really jumped out wasn't just what people were talking about, but how fast things seem to be moving now.

00:00:36: We saw tighter European cooperation procurement trying to speed up and this definite shift away from just concepts to actually fielding stuff, deployable capability.

00:00:46: We sort of clustered this around a few key themes, platforms and autonomy, then some frankly shocking challenges in air defense and that critical piece reinventing the industrial base.

00:00:56: Okay, let's dive right into that.

00:00:57: first one then.

00:00:58: platforms, systems, and this huge push for autonomy.

00:01:02: It's fascinating, the speed difference between, say, new crude fighters and these uncrewed programs.

00:01:08: Oh, absolutely.

00:01:09: That speed difference is, I think, the biggest strategic takeaway here.

00:01:12: You look at the Lockheed Martin and Sikorsky U-Hawk.

00:01:15: Dan Tenney and Frank St.

00:01:16: John were highlighting this one.

00:01:17: The

00:01:17: Autonomous Black Hawk Conversion.

00:01:19: That's the one, a fully autonomous UH-SixDL.

00:01:22: But here's the thing, using their Matrix autonomy system, they got twenty-five percent more cargo space.

00:01:27: And, ah, this is the kicker.

00:01:30: They went from a concept on paper to a working prototype in less than ten months.

00:01:35: Wow, ten months for a full helicopter conversion?

00:01:37: That's... That's almost unheard of in standard defense procurement.

00:01:41: Exactly.

00:01:42: It tells you that, you know, autonomy and software-driven approaches, they might actually be finding ways around the decades of standard acquisition bureaucracy.

00:01:49: That's a big deal.

00:01:50: It is.

00:01:50: And you saw that same focus on speed and logistics across the portfolio.

00:01:54: Dr.

00:01:55: Mark T. Maybury, he introduced the Nomad family.

00:01:57: These are group three and four hybrid electric UAS.

00:02:00: ISR and logistics.

00:02:02: Right.

00:02:03: designed specifically for ISR and logistics, crucially, runway independent, modular, cheap enough that you'd probably just swap out the power unit instead of constantly fixing it.

00:02:12: They're really aiming to replace older systems like the RQ-Seven Shadow at the brigade level.

00:02:17: So that focus on rapid, maybe more distributed logistics capability, it really contrasts with the huge long-term commitments you see with crude air dominance programs, which, let's be honest, are still the industrial backbone in many ways.

00:02:33: And those big programs are still moving.

00:02:34: Lockheed Martin, Jim Teichlet confirmed it, finalizing agreements for nearly three hundred F-thirty-fives globally.

00:02:40: To two ninety-six, I think?

00:02:41: Yeah,

00:02:41: a huge number.

00:02:43: And Greg Olmer pointed out the F-sixteen block, seventy milestones rolling out in places like Slovakia and Bulgaria.

00:02:48: So it's kind of a dual strategy, right?

00:02:50: Invest in the future, but also shore up NATO's current capabilities with proven jets.

00:02:54: And Europe's doing something similar, but the talk there also showed some friction, maybe.

00:03:00: Simon Ellard and Alexander Schadeg, they both noted Germany signing for twenty new Eurofighters.

00:03:05: Tranche five.

00:03:06: Good for the industrial base, support something like a hundred thousand jobs across Europe, reinforces that supply chain.

00:03:12: But yeah, the future combat air system, FCAS, the big next-gen European fighter program, it's showing some cracks.

00:03:20: Pascal Lim actually reported that Germany is now looking at Sweden, specifically Saab, as a potential plan B if FCAS gets bogged down.

00:03:27: A plan B already.

00:03:29: Interesting.

00:03:29: What's the focus there?

00:03:30: It seems to be on developing a future six-ton drone system, a collaborative combat aircraft, or CCA targeting around twenty thirty-two.

00:03:39: So even as they commit to the big crew fighter, they're hedging with autonomy.

00:03:43: That same kind of agility seems to be what Ukraine is prioritizing too.

00:03:46: I saw an Andreas Flodström noted Ukraine signed a letter of intent for Gripens.

00:03:50: That's right.

00:03:51: Up to one hundred and fifty JAS thirty-nine Greffen eJets from Sweden.

00:03:54: It really highlights that demand for, well, agility and cost efficiency.

00:03:57: It fits with that.

00:03:58: Philosophy of Yves Barzohar was championing

00:04:00: which was

00:04:01: a less complexity equals more effect.

00:04:03: He spotlighted the skywarden basically a militarized air tractor a to two simple reliable low-cost Goyan platform good for persistent eyes operating from rough spots.

00:04:13: So the listen is mixed.

00:04:14: high-end is needed, but mass speed simplicity They matter hugely on today's battlefield.

00:04:20: Exactly.

00:04:21: Okay.

00:04:21: That actually leads perfectly into our second theme counter uas hypersonics and this well frankly bizarre state of readiness.

00:04:28: And we've got capability gaps and apparently legal gaps too.

00:04:32: Yeah,

00:04:32: the drone threat, it's not on the margins anymore.

00:04:35: It's front and center.

00:04:36: Oleg Vornek from Drone Shield put it very bluntly.

00:04:39: The market wants counter drone systems that are proactive, integrated and deployable now, not just in small trials.

00:04:45: And the tech is responding fast.

00:04:47: Kieran Carroll mentioned Zero-Y's launching their aerial detection kit, ZAD.

00:04:51: That came straight out of Department of War requirements for spotting intrusions, weapons, and drones.

00:04:56: And AI is the real engine here, isn't it?

00:04:58: The force multiplier.

00:04:59: Definitely.

00:05:00: Paul Lemmo at Lockheed Martin showed off their Sanctum CUAS, which uses AI analytics.

00:05:06: Christian Emmaus talked about de-drone by Axon partnering with Titan Technologies for integrated NATO solutions.

00:05:12: Even systems like Aronia AEG's RTAS.

00:05:16: Stefan Krzyszanski noted strong interest at ADX- Twenty-Twenty-Five.

00:05:20: So the tech to find and, you know, deal with drones, it seems to be there.

00:05:26: But detection isn't the only issue.

00:05:28: Hunt Mike Dodd shared some pretty stark warnings about critical early warning radars, like in Greenland, structurally vulnerable to hypersonic missiles.

00:05:37: That needs urgent modernization.

00:05:39: That's a huge strategic vulnerability.

00:05:40: Time is really running out on that one.

00:05:43: And it's not just the hardware.

00:05:44: Dr.

00:05:44: Dirk Zimper emphasized that deep precision strike, which you need for credible deterrence, isn't just about buying a missile.

00:05:50: It's

00:05:50: the whole system.

00:05:51: Exactly.

00:05:52: It's integrating the ISR, the command and control, and the weapons.

00:05:55: You need the doctrine to make the hardware work effectively.

00:05:58: Okay, but here's the part that really struck me.

00:06:00: The legal hurdle.

00:06:01: Nicholas McGowan von Holstein summed up a panel discussion.

00:06:04: Yeah.

00:06:05: Where the experts basically said Europe's drone defense problem isn't the technology, it's the law.

00:06:10: They have proven tech, but can't always use it.

00:06:13: Wait, seriously, what kind of laws?

00:06:14: Things like aviation law, GDPR privacy regulations.

00:06:18: Apparently they often stop police, security forces, even critical infrastructure owners from actually acting to neutralize a drone threat even when they see one.

00:06:27: That's incredible.

00:06:28: A massive bottleneck that procurement teams can't fix.

00:06:31: You have the jammer, you see the threat, but legally, your hands are tied.

00:06:35: Sounds like it.

00:06:36: It raises the question, is it policy failure?

00:06:39: or maybe necessary caution given the risks in civilian airspace.

00:06:44: But it feels like legacy rules are overriding the current threat reality.

00:06:48: Which makes a lot of the CUAS investment potentially.

00:06:51: Well, less effective if you can't actually use it when needed.

00:06:53: That needs fixing fast.

00:06:55: Right.

00:06:55: And speaking of fixing things, let's pivot to theme three.

00:06:58: The industrial-based cooperation and investment strategy.

00:07:02: David Roberts put it well.

00:07:03: Europe's re-arming?

00:07:04: Great.

00:07:05: But can it reinvent its industrial backbone fast enough?

00:07:08: That's the billion-euro question, isn't it?

00:07:10: And the big roadblock seems to be fragmentation.

00:07:12: Jean-Braise Dumont from Airbus Defense and Space was very clear.

00:07:16: Industry can't effectively serve a market with twenty-seven different sets of military requirements.

00:07:20: So governments need to act more like a single customer?

00:07:23: Essentially, yes.

00:07:25: Harmonized requirements simplify the frameworks.

00:07:28: That's what unlocks the scale needed for serious private investment.

00:07:31: And where that investment goes is also critical.

00:07:35: Bram Cowberg's raised a red flag.

00:07:37: He argued that even with eight hundred billion being mobilized, there's a danger it just flows into traditional systems.

00:07:43: Instead of preparing for future conflicts fought with data and software, his point was clear.

00:07:48: IT power is combat power going forward.

00:07:51: Which ties into what Jaco Seren suggested, fixing the fragmentation of expectations.

00:07:56: Moving beyond this legacy.

00:07:57: primes versus new players thinking.

00:08:00: Right.

00:08:00: It's got to be about integration, blending the scale and experience of the primes with the speed and innovation of the newer companies.

00:08:06: And that pressure for speed and integration is hitting procurement.

00:08:10: Jonas Singer's takeaway was pretty blunt.

00:08:12: Speedbeat spend.

00:08:13: Procurement folks need the political backing to reward smart risk, he argued, to actually accelerate things.

00:08:19: And we're seeing concrete examples of this integration model.

00:08:23: Look at ARX Robotics partnering with DEUTZ, the German engine maker.

00:08:28: Dr.

00:08:28: Sebastian C. Schult and Mark A. Weitfeld announced it.

00:08:31: What's the deal there?

00:08:32: DEUTZ

00:08:33: isn't just investing.

00:08:34: They're supplying drive systems and giving ARX access to their massive global production and service network for UGVs.

00:08:41: That's how you scale robotics much faster than usual.

00:08:44: That makes sense.

00:08:45: We also saw that kind of structural shift in the UK-Ukraine partnership James C. mentioned, moving beyond just aid to actual co-production.

00:08:53: Using battle-tested Ukrainian designs with UK industrial muscle.

00:08:56: Smart way to field capability quickly.

00:08:58: Okay,

00:08:59: let's talk money.

00:08:59: The venture capital side.

00:09:01: Nicholas Ann made a strong case that this defense tech funding surge heading towards ten billion dollars globally this year isn't a bubble.

00:09:09: He argues it's structural, driven by real sustained government demand finally catching up after decades of underinvestment.

00:09:15: Okay,

00:09:15: so if it's structural, not just hype, what are the risks for investors or companies trying to get in?

00:09:21: Well, Nicholas N. did warn that valuations are already sky-high, median around a hundred and forty-six million dollars, especially in crowded spaces like drones.

00:09:30: Apparently, sixty percent of all defense tech funding is going there.

00:09:33: That smells like defense washing risk, doesn't it?

00:09:36: Companies may be overstating their military relevance to catch the wave?

00:09:39: Could be.

00:09:39: And that brings us to Louis Sanlon's dose of reality for newcomers.

00:09:43: He was blunt.

00:09:44: Compliance is hell.

00:09:46: You don't ship fast in defense.

00:09:47: You certify, test, retest.

00:09:49: Sales cycles are notoriously long, too.

00:09:51: Exactly.

00:09:52: Painfully long.

00:09:53: And for AI startups, getting hold of real-world operational data is often impossible, so they have to get really creative with training their models.

00:10:01: It takes a kind of patience, maybe toughness, that typical VC timelines don't always allow for.

00:10:07: which teased up our final theme perfectly, scaling AI and the talent challenge.

00:10:11: How did these defense AI firms grow fast without leasing that crucial mission focus?

00:10:16: Well, Noam Persky from Palantir talked about their concept of mission mode.

00:10:20: It's about keeping that founder level intensity across the whole company.

00:10:23: Driven

00:10:24: by a commitment to the outcome, not just stock options.

00:10:26: Precisely.

00:10:28: Using the hard constraints, the compliance hell, the data scarcity we just talked about to actually drive innovation, not let bureaucracy creep in.

00:10:36: And you see that commitment in M&A, too.

00:10:38: Florian Seivel announced quantum systems acquired Splenelabd, why?

00:10:42: To accelerate growth and specifically strengthen their software and AI core with specialized edge perception tech.

00:10:48: They know software integration is key.

00:10:50: And we're seeing the results reaching the warfighter.

00:10:53: Torsten Stab presented Eagle Eye.

00:10:54: That's an AI-enabled helmet system.

00:10:56: What

00:10:56: does it do?

00:10:57: Integrates mixed reality, multimodal sensing, basically aims to give soldiers superhuman perception by fusing data, drone feeds right onto their visor for real-time decisions.

00:11:08: Wow.

00:11:09: And Mohammed Sobi Foda showcased Salus CHIRB AI Platform II.

00:11:13: That one's focused on ultra low-power edge AI, embedding autonomy right at the tactical edge.

00:11:18: huge potential there, on Earth or even in space.

00:11:21: But, you know, despite all this incredible tech and AI focus, we have to come back to the human element.

00:11:25: It's still often the biggest limiting factor.

00:11:27: Absolutely critical point.

00:11:29: Elena Krzysztofska emphasized that something like eighty percent or more of a drone mission success still comes down to the pilot skill.

00:11:36: Eighty percent.

00:11:36: That's huge.

00:11:37: It is.

00:11:38: And training people on these advanced NATO systems takes time, patience, specific skills.

00:11:43: She mentioned it takes, on average, three months in Ukraine just to get proficient on one new platform type.

00:11:49: Technology doesn't fix a lack of train resilient people.

00:11:52: Very true.

00:11:53: And maybe a good place to wrap the talent discussion is with that quote from General Jekyll and Venovos that Brian B. shared about logistics and leadership.

00:12:00: Even now, the cargo you carry is not supplies, it's possibilities.

00:12:06: Powerful reminder.

00:12:07: Okay, so wrapping this all up, what does it mean for you listening?

00:12:10: Well, the defense tech market right now seems to find by, I'd say, three urgent drivers.

00:12:15: First, that focus on deployable, really pragmatic autonomy.

00:12:19: Second, the need to urgently address those big strategic and weirdly legal gaps, especially around hypersonus detection and the authority to actually use counter UAS tech.

00:12:29: And third, that really powerful necessary push towards a more unified, faster European industrial base.

00:12:37: Which leads us to maybe a final thought for you to chew on.

00:12:40: Nicholas Senn talked about this huge structural shift in VC funding pouring in.

00:12:45: But Louis Sarans reminded us about the compliance as hell, the slow, deliberate certification process.

00:12:51: Right.

00:12:52: So how does the industry actually manage that tension?

00:12:55: The tension between the necessarily slow, careful process of traditional defense procurement and the mission mode speed needed to actually stay ahead technologically.

00:13:05: That balancing act feels like the challenge defining military acquisition right now.

00:13:09: That's a great question to ponder.

00:13:10: If you enjoyed this deep dive, new additions drop every two weeks.

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