Best of LinkedIn: Defense Tech CW 46/ 47

00:00:00: provided by Thomas Allgeier and Frennus, based on the most relevant posts on LinkedIn about defense tech in CW-Forty-Six and Forty-Seven.

00:00:07: Frennus is a B-to-B market research company that equips product and strategy teams with market and competitive intelligence across the defense industry.

00:00:16: Welcome back to the Deep Dive.

00:00:19: Today, we're jumping straight into the strategic shifts we're seeing in defense tech, all based on the professional conversations from LinkedIn in calendar weeks, forty-six and forty-seven.

00:00:28: And looking at the material, one thing is just crystal clear.

00:00:31: There is a fundamental pivot happening right now.

00:00:33: A huge one.

00:00:34: Yeah.

00:00:34: We're moving away from this old model of just buying, you know, single pieces of hardware.

00:00:39: The whole conversation now is about integrated system.

00:00:41: It's all about integration.

00:00:42: Software, factories, networks.

00:00:45: Even capital markets are being treated as core technologies now.

00:00:47: Exactly.

00:00:48: And the posts we've seen give really concrete examples of this.

00:00:51: We're talking new drones, submarines, new comm systems.

00:00:54: So it's

00:00:55: not just theory.

00:00:55: You can see it in the metal and in the code.

00:00:57: Right.

00:00:58: So we've broken it all down into five major themes that really dominate the conversation.

00:01:03: Let's start with the one that underpins everything else.

00:01:07: the industrial base itself.

00:01:08: The idea that the factory is the weapon.

00:01:11: The

00:01:11: factory is the weapon.

00:01:12: That's the phrase you see everywhere.

00:01:13: It's the shift in thinking where sheer mass production capacity is now seen as the decisive capability, maybe even more so than just having the single most advanced piece of tech.

00:01:24: It's right, Stevens drove that point home really effectively.

00:01:27: He argued that, you know, defense preparedness now relies almost entirely on that capacity for mass production.

00:01:34: And we're seeing startups pivot hard towards that.

00:01:36: Ali Java Harry pointed out that twenty twenty six seems to be the year for it.

00:01:40: Oh, for sure.

00:01:40: He named names Castilian, a pyrus and Dural, all committing serious capital to actually scale up their manufacturing.

00:01:47: Which is a huge deal.

00:01:48: You have this venture capital speed now crashing into old school industrial discipline.

00:01:52: A tough combination to get right.

00:01:54: Very tough.

00:01:55: Yeah.

00:01:55: But they're becoming these critical players in the supply chain.

00:01:58: You can see it really clearly in these strategic bottlenecks like.

00:02:03: Solid rocket motors

00:02:05: the SRM market.

00:02:06: Matthew Fulco laid that out really well.

00:02:07: It used to be this quiet little duopoly

00:02:09: right complacent, but now with this massive demand It's becoming this hyper competitive Strategic industry.

00:02:16: and that's where a company like Andrewle comes in exactly.

00:02:18: they saw the bottleneck and just moved.

00:02:20: they put seventy five million dollars of their own money into a new SRM facility in Mississippi.

00:02:27: and

00:02:27: what's the output they're targeting?

00:02:28: It's huge Six thousand tactical motors a year by the end of twenty twenty six.

00:02:33: Six thousand.

00:02:34: That kind of private investment speed just completely changes the game for the big traditional primes.

00:02:39: It does.

00:02:39: And it's not just a U.S.

00:02:40: thing either.

00:02:41: Over in the U.K.

00:02:42: James Lawson noted that they just opened their first resilience factory

00:02:46: in Plymouth.

00:02:46: Right.

00:02:46: Yep.

00:02:47: And its entire purpose is rapid iteration for autonomous systems.

00:02:51: So the physical footprint is changing globally to reward speed.

00:02:54: OK.

00:02:55: So the factories are getting faster.

00:02:56: That brings us to our next theme.

00:02:58: What are they actually building?

00:03:00: Drones and autonomy.

00:03:02: And here, the conversation has moved on.

00:03:05: The airframe itself.

00:03:06: I mean, it's almost a commodity now.

00:03:08: That's what Tom G, a senior UAV pilot, was saying, the real race is in the electronics, the stuff you don't see.

00:03:15: Right.

00:03:15: The resilient, scalable electronics.

00:03:18: The questions everyone's asking now are, what happens when your GPS is jammed?

00:03:22: when your data links are degraded or spooced.

00:03:24: How does the system handle messy partial data instead of needing a perfect

00:03:29: picture?

00:03:29: Exactly.

00:03:30: And that onboard intelligence is enabling completely new tactics.

00:03:34: Matt Bev detail AFSO's A to E strategy.

00:03:37: Where they use the MQ-Nine drone as a kind of mothership.

00:03:40: A mothership in a network node, yeah.

00:03:41: They can send a smaller, cheaper, LTE-ist drone into the high threat areas.

00:03:46: So you risk the a tradable asset, not the multi-million dollar platform.

00:03:50: It's just a smarter way to distribute risk and extend your reach.

00:03:53: It's about mass and intelligence.

00:03:54: Which, of course, means the counter drone race is heating up just as fast.

00:03:58: Oh, absolutely.

00:03:59: Bochan Stochkovsky basically called, twenty twenty five, the year of the interceptor drone.

00:04:04: And we're

00:04:05: seeing them emerge.

00:04:06: You have the European MBDA Skywarden system that Florence Dooley was talking about.

00:04:11: And that AI-powered Merobs Interceptor that Mark CL highlighted.

00:04:15: It did really well at a NATO live fire exercise in Poland.

00:04:18: It all comes down to a race for time.

00:04:21: It does.

00:04:21: Wow.

00:04:22: Which explains the money.

00:04:23: Evan Loomis mentioned that Seas Industries just closed a five hundred and ten million dollar series D round.

00:04:30: Wow.

00:04:30: And their whole focus is on advanced radars that give you more time.

00:04:34: They track targets minutes sooner and for much farther away than the legacy systems can.

00:04:38: And in a swarm attack a few minutes is everything.

00:04:40: It's

00:04:40: the difference between success and failure.

00:04:43: And this push for autonomy isn't just in the air either, it's going deep.

00:04:47: Right,

00:04:47: down into the subsurface.

00:04:49: Keith King reported on Australia's massive investment, what was it, one point seven billion?

00:04:53: Yeah, one point seven billion dollars to mass produce the ghost shark.

00:04:55: These

00:04:56: are the extra large autonomous underwater vehicles.

00:04:59: AUVs, yeah.

00:05:00: Developed with Endoral Australia.

00:05:02: And these things can operate beyond five thousand meters deep.

00:05:05: We're talking deep ocean ISR and strike capability.

00:05:09: Which is not just about military targets, it's about protecting all that critical subsea infrastructure like internet cables.

00:05:15: Exactly.

00:05:15: The defense mission is expanding into new economic territory.

00:05:19: Speaking of expansion, that's a perfect lead-in to our third theme.

00:05:23: The collapse of traditional domains.

00:05:25: Space, firepower, and networked integration.

00:05:28: It's all connected now.

00:05:29: Space isn't some separate domain anymore.

00:05:32: It's absolutely central to maritime, air, and ground operations.

00:05:36: Joseph Aschbacher pointed out that growing link between space and marine economies.

00:05:42: Yeah,

00:05:42: with ESA's Sentinel satellites enabling everything from border security to law enforcement at sea.

00:05:47: And having your own way to get there remains critical.

00:05:50: Tony Toker Nielsen framed the Ariane Six rocket as this big symbol of European cooperation for sovereign access to space.

00:05:56: And once you're up there, or anywhere really, you need firepower that actually works.

00:06:00: It sounds basic, but reliability is everything.

00:06:03: Brian Kubic announced a record setting day for PAC-III missile intercepts at White Sands.

00:06:08: That continuous testing and proving is non-negotiable.

00:06:11: But the real game changer, like we said at the top, is integration.

00:06:15: For sure.

00:06:16: Chandra Marshall and Ray Pacelli were discussing plans to integrate the European IRIST missile into the US Aegis system.

00:06:23: Which sounds technical, but that is a massive deal.

00:06:26: It's the first European missile ever to be integrated like that.

00:06:29: They pull

00:06:29: it off, yeah.

00:06:31: It would be a huge leap forward for Allied interoperability.

00:06:34: A policy win and a tech win all at once.

00:06:37: You see that same logic in procurement.

00:06:39: Glenn Copeland highlighted Germany picking Lockheed Martin Canada's CMS-III-III Combat Management System.

00:06:45: It's another move toward Allied fleets that can operate as one.

00:06:49: But again, none of this works.

00:06:50: The missiles, the ships, the sensors, without the network tying it all together.

00:06:54: The secure communication layer.

00:06:56: Right.

00:06:56: That's why you saw so much attention on things like the Airbus DCIS showcase at Steadfast Cobalt-II.

00:07:02: And that European five-g compad demonstration, that one involved Rheinmetall, SAB, and Thales showing off resilient tactical comms.

00:07:13: It's not just a concept anymore.

00:07:14: It's

00:07:14: a deployable reality, which brings us to a tricky subject.

00:07:19: We have the tech, we have the factory spinning up, but is the policy keeping pace?

00:07:23: Ah,

00:07:23: theme four.

00:07:25: policy, strategy, and the gaps.

00:07:28: And there's some real friction here.

00:07:29: Sure.

00:07:30: Andrew Park described the new U.S.

00:07:32: acquisition reform plans from Secretary Haggsyth as a complete restructuring.

00:07:36: Not just a tweak.

00:07:37: No, making speed and usable capability the absolute center of gravity for how they buy

00:07:42: things.

00:07:42: But that focus on speed isn't everywhere.

00:07:44: Thomas Lucas was blunt about the UK's defense posture being misaligned with current threats.

00:07:49: Specifically calling out the lack of a fully funded air and missile defense strategy.

00:07:53: A huge gap.

00:07:54: And then you get to examples that are, well,

00:07:56: almost absurd.

00:07:57: The tank bubble in Germany.

00:07:59: Jonas Singer laid this out.

00:08:00: The cost for a new leopard to a tank is nearly five times the historical price.

00:08:05: And at the same time, they have a massive manpower shortage.

00:08:08: Right.

00:08:08: They lack the four-person crews, not to mention the ten to fifteen support staff you need for every single tank.

00:08:14: So you're buying thousands of vehicles you can't even operate?

00:08:17: He called it the world's most expensive parking lot.

00:08:20: It's capacity without capability.

00:08:22: And you contrast that inertia with what's happening in Ukraine.

00:08:26: Denise Fiatokum reported on real capital flowing in now.

00:08:29: The two hundred and fifty million dollar rebuild Ukraine fund and over a hundred and forty million euros from the EU for dual use

00:08:37: tech.

00:08:37: They're actively trying to integrate Ukraine into Europe's resilience strategy.

00:08:42: Which is great.

00:08:43: But Maria Chirpec and Ilya Chikinyeva pointed out that despite all the talent there, the Ukrainian defense tech sector is still massively undercapitalized to really scale up.

00:08:52: Ingenuity can only get you so far without.

00:08:55: serious industrial investment.

00:08:56: Which brings us to our final theme, the startup ecosystem and a fascinating paradox around AI.

00:09:02: Yeah, these startups, the so-called war unicorns, a term from Pete Modigliani, they're really driving the pace.

00:09:08: You've got over a hundred and eighty billion in VC pumped into defense tech in just the last five years.

00:09:13: But as you said, they're hitting some major roadblocks, especially with AI.

00:09:17: Burek Otto was on a panel about AI certification, and he flagged a core legal paradox.

00:09:23: It's a tricky one.

00:09:24: Ferry, if a human pilot makes a mistake, the human is responsible.

00:09:29: Simple enough.

00:09:30: Right.

00:09:30: But an AI agent isn't a legal entity.

00:09:34: So if it makes a catastrophic error, who is liable?

00:09:37: The developer, the operator.

00:09:39: the person who supplied the data.

00:09:41: Nobody knows.

00:09:42: And that lack of clarity is a huge break on deployment.

00:09:45: And

00:09:45: there's a societal hurdle too.

00:09:46: that's even stranger.

00:09:47: Burick Atta shared this thought experiment.

00:09:49: The one about driving in Germany.

00:09:51: That's

00:09:51: the one.

00:09:51: He said, hypothetically, AI could cut car accident rates in half.

00:09:55: A huge net gain for safety.

00:09:57: But society would likely reject the few remaining deaths if they were caused by a machine.

00:10:03: We have this paradoxical tolerance for human error that we don't extend to AI.

00:10:07: It's a huge challenge.

00:10:08: And it's why so much of the strategic talk comes back to software.

00:10:12: Brita Jacob made the case that software-defined defense is essential for deterrence and growth.

00:10:17: It's about agility.

00:10:18: You see that agility with companies like ARX Robotics.

00:10:22: Stefan R. was showcasing how their software, the Mithra OS, lets them innovate in cycles measured in months.

00:10:28: Not years or decades, like the traditional prize.

00:10:31: Exactly.

00:10:31: And that speed gets you results.

00:10:33: Fast.

00:10:34: Oleksander Serban shared this incredible example from a defense tech hackathon.

00:10:39: What was that like?

00:10:40: They built a prototype AI system that analyzes geotagged photos and videos.

00:10:45: So, say, for a drone sighting near an airport, it cut the emergency response time from hours.

00:10:51: down to seconds.

00:10:52: How many

00:10:52: hours to seconds?

00:10:53: Just with smarter software.

00:10:54: It's a tangible, life-saving impact.

00:10:56: So if we pull all of this together, I mean, the one big takeaway from these two weeks is that we are watching the very definition of military capability change in real time.

00:11:06: It's not just about heavy metal anymore.

00:11:07: Not at all.

00:11:08: It's about speed, it's about software, and it's about the industrial base's ability to deliver at scale.

00:11:13: That's what's decisive now.

00:11:15: Which leaves us with a final, provocative thought for you to consider.

00:11:18: We're seeing governments buy incredibly expensive human intensive equipment like those German tanks that need huge vulnerable crews.

00:11:25: At the same time, frontline reports all stress that the human operator is the single most valuable and vulnerable target.

00:11:32: So given that societal paradox that Barakatata mentioned, our strange tolerance for human error, how quickly will procurement systems adapt?

00:11:40: How fast will they pivot to prioritizing force-multiplying autonomy over systems that demand the one asset we can least afford to lose?

00:11:48: If you enjoyed this deep dive, new episodes drop every two weeks.

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